Development Studies Programme (DSP) - Opinion Polls: Poll No. 15

Development Studies Programme - Birzeit University

Results of An Exit Poll

Palestinian Presidential Election

January 9, 2005

Distribution of Votes for Each Candidate

How much did the various groups/regions contribute to the

total votes for each candidate?

Regional Distribution

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

West Bank

64%

(99985)

59%

(295854)

85%

(18214)

57%

(15303)

20%

(1143)

57%

(12637)

15%

(1561)

Gaza

36%

(56242)

41%

(205594)

15%

(3214)

43%

(11544)

80%

4573))

43%

(9533)

85%

(8845)

· 59% of Abbas’s votes came from the West Bank, and 41% came from Gaza.

· 85% of AL-Salhi’s votes came from the West Bank, and 15% came from Gaza.

· More than 80% of the votes for Baraka and Shubair were from Gaza. Al-Ashqar’s votes came from Gaza,(43%) and the West Bank( 57%).

Type of Locality

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam

Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

City

%36

(56241)

30%

(150434)

%14

(3000)

%21

(5638)

%40

(2286)

%11

(2439)

%25

(2602)

Village-Town

%51

(79675)

%52

(260752)

%73

(15643)

%42

(11276)

%20

(1143)

%63

(13968)

%67

(6972)

Camp

%13

(20310)

%18

(90260)

%14

(3000)

%37

(9934)

%40

(2286)

%26

(5764)

(833)

· 73% of Al- Salhi’s votes came from villages (in the West Bank), and about 14% of his votes came from cities; whereas only 20% of Shubair’s votes came from villages.

Gender

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam

Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

Male

%52

(81238)

%58

(290839)

%55

(11786)

%56

(15034)

%53

(11750)

%75

(7804)

Female

%47

(73427)

%42

(210608)

%45

(9643)

%44

(11813)

%47

(10420)

%25

(2602)

· 47% of Barghothi’s votes came from women, whereas 42% for Abbas's votes came from women.

Age

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam

Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

18 -29

%43

(67178)

%41

(205593)

%36

(7714)

%55

(14766)

%40

(2286)

%33

(7316)

%58

(6035)

30 – 50

%47

(73427)

%44

(220637)

%44

(9429)

%15

(4027)

%60

(3430)

%57

(12637)

%42

(4370)

More 50

(14060)

%15

(75217)

%19

(4072)

%30

(8054)

%10

(2217)

· 44% of Barghouti’s votes came from youth (18-29), whereas Abbas received 41% and Salhi 36% of their votes from the same age group.

Education

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam

Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

Elementary

%26

(40619)

%40

(200579)

%45

(9643)

%33

(8859)

%20

(1143)

%27

(5986)

%17

(1769)

Secondary

%40

(62490)

%31

(155449)

%26

(5571)

%43

(11544)

%40

(2286)

%27

(5985)

%33

(3433)

Diploma or more

%34

(53117)

%30

(150434)

%29

(6214)

%24

(6443)

%40

(2286)

%46

(10198)

%50

(5203)

· Illiterate and least educated voters (less than 9 years education) contributed 40% of the votes for Abbas, 45% for Al-Salhi and 33% for Khaled, whereas only 26% for Barghouti.

· In contrast, 35% of Barghouti's votes came from voters with higher education (12 years of more than education), 30% of Abba's, 29% of AL-Salhi's and 24% of Khaled's.

Place of Residence ( before 1994)

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

West Bank and Gaza

%90

(140604)

%91

(456318)

%92

(19715)

%95

(25506)

%80

(4574)

%91

(20176)

Out of Palestine

%10

(1623)

(45130)

(1714)

(1342)

%20

(1143)

(1995)

· There was no significant difference in the percentage of votes from voters who lived in Gaza and West Bank before 1994 and those who lived outside .

Religiosity

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam

Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

Religious

%45

(70302)

%57

(285825)

%47

(10269)

%45

(12082)

%80

(4574)

%59

(13081)

%58

(6035)

Religious to an extent

%47

(73427)

%36

(180521)

%47

(10269)

%45

(12082)

%20

(1143)

%41

(9090)

%33

(3434)

Not religious

(11498)

(35102)

(891)

%10

(2684)

(937)

· Abbas received 57% of his votes from people who consider themselves religious, while Khaled received 45%.

Political Affiliation

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam

Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

DFLP

(7811)

(5015)

(1071)

%67

(17988)

%20

(1143)

PPP

(1562)

(10029)

%49

(10500)

FATAH

%15

(23434)

%75

(376086)

%18

(3857)

%19

(5101)

%10

(2217)

(832)

PFLP

%12

(18747)

(5015)

ISLAMIC JIHAD

(4687)

(10029)

(643)

%10

(2217)

(832)

HAMAS

%19

(29683)

(20058)

(1071)

%10

(2685)

%40

(2287)

%30

(6651)

%46

(4788)

Al Mubadara (Palestinian National Initiative)

%16

(24996)

(20058)

(1071)

(1109)

Others/

Independents

29%

(45307)

11%

(55158)

15%

(3213)

(1074)

40%

(2287)

45%

(9977)

38%

(3954)

· Al-Mubadara supporters contributed 16% to Barghouti's votes; independents gave him 30%, Hamas 19%, Fateh 15% and the PFLP 12%.

· Fateh gave Mahmoud Abbass 75% of his votes, the independents 12%, Hamas 4%.

· The PPP contributed 49% of the votes to AL-Salihi, while the DFLP gave Khaled 67% of his votes.

· Al-Ashqar got 40% of his votes from the supporters Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Refugee Status

Mustafa Barghouti

Mahmoud Abbas

Bassam

Al-Salhi

Taysir Khaled

Abdel-Karim Shubair

Abdel-Halim Al-Ashqar

Hussein Baraka

Refugee

%45

(70302)

%45

(225651)

%37

(7928)

%65

(17451)

%60

(3430)

%52

(11528)

%36

(3746)

Non- Refugee

%55

(85924)

%55

(275796)

%63

(13500)

%35

(9396)

%40

(2286)

%48

(10642)

%64

(6659)

· Al-Salihi and Baraka got less votes from refugees compared to other candidates.

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