|
Exit Poll Results
Field Research: 9, January 2005
Sample
Size: (to predict the outcome) 8150
Smple Size: (for analysis) 1150
Voting stations in the sample:
153
Margin
of error: + 3%
Percentage Votes with Blank and
Cancelled Ballots
|
|
BZU / DSP Results
Margin of Error +3% |
Official Results |
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
64.5 |
62.52 |
|
Mustafa Barghouti |
17.8 |
19.48 |
|
Tayseer Khaled |
2.5 |
3.35 |
|
Abdel Haleem Al-Eshqar |
2.1 |
2.76 |
|
Bassam Al-Salhi |
3.8 |
2.67 |
|
Hussein Baraka |
0.9 |
1.30 |
|
Abdel Kareem Shubair |
0.9 |
0.71 |
|
Blank and Cancelled Ballots |
7.5 |
7.21 |
n
Our results
don’t take into consideration cancelled/invalid ballots which comprise, in our
estimation, 2.5% (and officially 3.8%). Cancelled ballots were included in the
official count, which explains some of the difference between our results and
the official results. If taken into consideration, the results for all
candidates would be a little less than presented in the table and would all be
within the margin of error. Our records show that “blank and Canceled” ballots
comprise 7.4% of all ballots.
n
Our
predictions for Bassam Al-Salhi were higher than the official results, as three
of the localities that were included in our sample were predominately supportive
of the Peoples Party which he heads (i.e., sampling error).
When did you decide to vote?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza |
|
Today |
20.5 |
20.4 |
20.6 |
|
Last Week |
13.9 |
14.8 |
12.6 |
|
Last Month |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.7 |
|
Before one Month |
55.0 |
54.2 |
56.0 |
Which one of the following
variables was most important in selecting your candidate?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza |
|
His political affiliation |
15.8 |
15.0 |
17.0 |
|
His integrity |
11.5 |
11.6 |
11.4 |
|
His diplomatic skills |
10.7 |
10.2 |
11.4 |
|
His ability to solve social
problems |
9.4 |
9.2 |
9.5 |
|
His ability to improve economic
conditions |
9.4 |
8.7 |
10.3 |
|
His record in the struggle |
8.7 |
10.2 |
6.6 |
|
His commitment to national
rights |
7.8 |
9.2 |
5.8 |
|
His ability to achieve
democracy |
7.6 |
6.5 |
9.3 |
|
His ability to confront Israel |
6.1 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
|
His election program |
4.8 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
|
As a protest against the status
quo |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
|
Did not select anyone as I feel
no one is qualified |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
|
His religious reputation |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
Do you believe that the election
was fair or unfair?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza |
|
Fair |
73.8 |
71.8 |
76.9 |
|
Fair to some extent |
21.2 |
23.5 |
17.7 |
|
Unfair |
5.0 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
Do you believe that the election
will lead to the following? (% who said yes)
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza |
|
Improving PNA performance |
83.7 |
85.0 |
82.8 |
|
Improving the economic
situation |
81.3 |
80.0 |
84.6 |
|
Improving the internal security
situation |
80.6 |
79.8 |
81.9 |
|
Reducing suffering related to
roadblocks |
76.8 |
76.3 |
77.4 |
|
Resumption of talks with Israel |
76.4 |
77.7 |
74.5 |
|
Reinforcing democratic
practices |
75.2 |
75.2 |
75.3 |
|
Withdrawal of Israel from
Palestinian cities |
57.1 |
57.2 |
56.9 |
In your opinion, which of these
issues is most important?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza |
|
Withdrawal of Israel from
Palestinian cities |
28.7 |
29.1 |
28.3 |
|
Improving the economic
situation |
25.9 |
26.6 |
25.4 |
|
Resumption of talks with Israel |
14.8 |
15.4 |
15.0 |
|
Improving the internal security
situation |
9.4 |
8.6 |
10.4 |
|
Improving PNA performance |
8.4 |
8.4 |
8.4 |
|
Reducing suffering related to
roadblocks |
7.4 |
7.9 |
6.9 |
|
Reinforcing democratic
practices |
5.3 |
6.2 |
4.3 |
Which one of the following factors
was most important in your decision to participate in the election?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza |
|
My duty as a citizen |
30.6 |
29.5 |
32.1 |
|
It is a democratic right and
practice |
27.1 |
27.7 |
26.2 |
|
Hope to improve the economic
situation |
18.9 |
17.0 |
21.7 |
|
Hope to improve PNA
institutions |
9.6 |
8.7 |
11.0 |
|
Hope for change in political
parties |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
|
Conforming to the wishes of a
political party |
1.2 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
|
Conforming to the wishes of my
family |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
Distribution pf Voters by
Socio-Economic Variables
|
Type of locality |
City |
30% |
|
Village |
52% |
|
Camp |
18% |
|
Age |
18-22 |
20% |
|
23-27 |
17% |
|
28-32 |
13% |
|
33-37 |
12% |
|
38-42 |
11% |
|
43-47 |
8% |
|
48-50 |
7% |
|
More than 50 |
13% |
Distribution pf Voters by
Socio-Economic Variables
|
Region |
West Bank |
60% |
|
Gaza Strip |
40% |
|
Gender |
Male |
56% |
|
Female |
44% |
|
Education |
Illiterate |
7% |
|
Preparatory |
11% |
|
Elementary |
18% |
|
Secondary |
32% |
|
Diploma |
10% |
|
B.A. or more |
22% |
Distribution pf Voters by
Socio-Economic Variables
|
Sector |
Private |
45% |
|
NGO’s |
4% |
|
Public Sector |
19% |
|
Students |
13% |
|
Housewives |
25% |
|
Unemployed |
15% |
Which political group do you
support?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza |
|
Fateh |
55.9 |
53.1 |
60.1 |
|
Hamas |
8.7 |
8.6 |
8.8 |
|
Al Mubadara (Palestinian
National Initiative) |
6.8 |
7.9 |
5.1 |
|
Palestinian People Party (PPP) |
3.4 |
4.8 |
1.3 |
|
Democratic Front for the
Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) |
3.1 |
3.7 |
2.1 |
|
Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) |
2.8 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
|
Islamic Jihad |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
|
Independents / Others |
17.2 |
16.7 |
18.0 |
Voting by Political affiliation
|
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
Mustafa Barghouti |
Tayseer Khaled |
Bassam Al-Salhi |
Abdel Haleem Al-Eshqar |
Hussein Baraka |
Abdel Kareem Shubair |
|
Fatah |
91 |
5 |
1 |
1.5 |
< 1 |
< 1 |
< 1 |
|
Hamas |
30 |
37 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
|
Al Mubadara |
33 |
58 |
- |
3.0 |
1.5 |
- |
- |
|
PPP |
33 |
3.5 |
- |
64 |
- |
- |
- |
|
DFLP |
17 |
24 |
48 |
7 |
- |
- |
3 |
|
PFLP |
30 |
67 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Islamic Jihad |
50 |
20 |
- |
5 |
10 |
- |
5 |
|
Independents |
45 |
30 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
Voting by Age
|
|
18 - 29 |
30 - 50 |
More than 50 |
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
65% |
66% |
69% |
|
Mustafa Barghouti |
18% |
19% |
11% |
|
Bassam Al-Salhi |
3.4% |
3.9% |
5.4% |
|
Tayseer Khaled |
2.9% |
0.7% |
4.7% |
Voting by Educational Attainment
|
|
0- 9 years |
10 – 12 years |
More than 12 years |
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
74.8% |
65.1% |
61.3% |
|
Mustafa Barghouti |
12.3% |
21.6% |
18% |
|
Bassam Al-Salhi |
5.1% |
3.4% |
3.7% |
|
Tayseer Khaled |
2.1% |
3.1% |
1.7% |
Voting by Type of Locality
|
|
Camp |
City |
Village |
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
67% |
66% |
66% |
|
Mustafa Barghouti |
12.4% |
20% |
16.% |
|
Bassam Al-Salhi |
3.3% |
2.0% |
6.0% |
|
Tayseer Khaled |
4.6% |
1.6% |
1.8% |
Voting by Gender
|
|
Men |
Women |
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
65% |
64% |
|
Mustafa Barghouti |
16% |
20% |
|
Bassam Al-Salhi |
3.5% |
4.0% |
|
Tayseer Khaled |
2.1% |
2.3% |
Evaluation of the Fairness of the
Election by Voters
(% who said it was not fair)
|
Fateh |
Al Mubadara |
Hamas |
PPP |
PFLP |
DFLP |
Islamic Jihad |
|
2% |
5% |
13% |
7% |
11% |
14% |
25% |
Voting by District
|
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
Mustafa Barghouti |
Bassam Al-Salhi |
Taiser Khaled |
Abdel Haleem Al-Eshqar |
|
Jerusalem |
61.4 |
19.3 |
2.1 |
6.2 |
2.1 |
|
Ramallah |
61.0 |
23.5 |
5.1 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
|
Jericho |
75.0 |
13.8 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
|
Bethlehem |
61.3 |
20.2 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
|
Hebron |
58.5 |
24.5 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
|
Salfeet |
55.7 |
20.7 |
9.2 |
4.9 |
2.0 |
|
Nablus |
58.4 |
21.5 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
2.5 |
|
Tulkarem |
54.3 |
21.1 |
6.1 |
6.4 |
4.0 |
|
Qalqilya |
63.5 |
21.1 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
|
Tubas |
67.6 |
15.9 |
0.9 |
6.0 |
1.7 |
|
Jinin |
61.2 |
18.0 |
2.8 |
6.9 |
2.1 |
|
Gaza North |
68.0 |
19.4 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Gaza |
68.0 |
16.5 |
0.6 |
1.7 |
3.9 |
|
Dir Al-Balah |
66.4 |
18.0 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
2.9 |
|
Kahn Yonis |
61.3 |
17.5 |
0.6 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
|
Rafah |
66.0 |
16.6 |
1.4 |
|
3.0 |
* According to Official
Results.
Distribution of Voters According to
Time of Voting
|
|
First Period
7:00am –
10:30 am |
Second Period
10:30 am –
1:00 pm |
Third Period
1:00 pm –
5:00 pm |
Fourth Period
5:00 pm –
8:30 pm |
|
West Bank |
17.7% |
32.2% |
28.6% |
21.4% |
|
Ramallah |
14% |
29.0% |
27.0% |
31.0% |
Percentage votes out of eligible
population
(assumed # of Population 1.600.000)
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
30% |
|
Mustafa Barghouti |
9.6% |
|
Tayseer Khaled |
1.7% |
|
Bassam Al-Salhi |
1.3% |
Percentage votes out of eligible
population
(assumed # of Population 1.800.000)
|
Mahmoud Abbas |
27% |
|
Mustafa Barghouti |
8.5% |
|
Tayseer Khaled |
1.5% |
|
Bassam Al-Salhi |
1.2% |
Exit Poll Results ( PDF Format)
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