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Section 1: Background
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On the
4th of July, Mahmoud Abbas, Ariel Sharon and
George W. Bush held an historic meeting in
Aqaba, Jordan to launch the Road Map, a
peace plan intended to help the Palestinians and Israelis
achieve independent, peaceful co-existence.
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A majority
of Palestinian factions agreed to a “Hudna” or ceasefire
at the end of June, halting attacks against Israeli
targets. Thus far, all factions have honored the
agreement.
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A debate
exists amongst Palestinians as to an extension of the
ceasefire by an additional 3 months.
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Living
conditions continue to remain severely deteriorated with
more than 41% of households without any source of income,
and most Palestinian cities remain under closure.
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Despite
Israeli claims that they have dismantled major checkpoints
at Qalandia (Ramallah), Hewara (Nablus) and Al Hamra
(primary entry point to northern cities of the West Bank),
these remain intact, while smaller nearby checkpoints have
been converted from permanent checkpoints to those with
mobile military units acting as checkpoints, stationed in
the same locations.
Section 2: Analysis of
Results
1.
Living Conditions
The following results show
that no improvement has taken place in Palestinian living
conditions since the implementation of the Road Map
(launched about two months ago) and the inauguration of the
new Palestinian Government (inaugurated three months ago).
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41% of
households have no working breadwinner (no change since
May 2003).
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38% of the
respondents described their economic conditions as (bad)
or (very bad). In addition, 44% described their economic
conditions as (fair). In contrast, only 18% described
their conditions as (good) or (very good).
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Regardless
of these deteriorating living conditions, most
Palestinians are still hopeful for the future. About 42%
say they are optimistic and 25% say they are pessimistic.
32% have mixed feelings.
2.
Mixed feelings about the Performance of
the new government
The majority of respondents
realize there are obstacles faced by the new Palestinian
Government headed by Mr. Mahmoud Abbas. About 79% said that
Israel is placing obstacles in the face of the new
government leading to low rates of success in its
performance. Another 56% said that there are internal
obstacles that are hindering the performance of the new
government. An additional 36% said that the new government
has no (power) to implement its programs. At the same time,
36% said that it has (some power); while 22% said that it
has (enough power).
Having said this, respondents
expressed mixed levels of evaluation of the new government:
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27%
evaluated the performance of Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas
as (good), and 34% said it was (fair). At the same time,
28% said that his performance was (weak).
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As to the
performance of the new ministerial cabinet, 23% said that
it was (Good), and 39% said that it was (fair). In
contrast, 31% said that the performance of the new cabinet
was (weak).
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Doubts
about the performance of the new cabinet and its prime
minister are higher in the West Bank than in Gaza. One third of the West Bank
respondents said that the performance of the new cabinet
was (weak), compared with 28% among Gaza respondents.
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When
asked to evaluate the performance of the new government in
specific fields, the picture became more complicated. The
new government received it lowest marks in the fields of
alleviating unemployment, getting the Israelis to withdraw
from Palestinian cities and lift the closure, and fighting
corruption. In contrast, the new government received
relatively higher marks in the fields of improving
governmental services and improving the rule of law (see
table 1). As the table also shows, West bank respondents
were more critical of the new government than
Gaza respondents.
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Table (1): Percentage
of respondents who evaluated the performance of the new
government as (Weak) according to region |
|
Field |
West Bank |
Gaza |
Total |
|
Reducing unemployment |
68.7 |
54.5 |
63.6 |
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Withdrawal of Israeli
forces |
63.7 |
56.9 |
61.3 |
|
Lifting of the closure |
68.1 |
46.3 |
60.3 |
|
Fighting corruption |
55.6 |
46.2 |
52.2 |
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Resolving the problem of
illegal weapons |
50.3 |
49.3 |
49.9 |
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Improving economic
conditions |
53.4 |
40.7 |
48.8 |
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Providing security for
citizens |
53.8 |
29.0 |
44.9 |
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Progressing in
negotiations with Israel |
42.5 |
49.0 |
44.8 |
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Mobilization of the
Judiciary |
44.6 |
27.6 |
38.6 |
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Reinforcing the rule of
law |
42.6 |
30.1 |
38.1 |
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Improving governmental
services |
38.5 |
25.7 |
33.9 |
A May, 2003 DSP poll showed
that 51% of respondents expected the new government to
improve living conditions, and 60% said that it would
improve the performance of governmental institutions. In
addition, 47% expected that it would be able to fight
corruption.
3.
Halt on attacks against Israeli targets
While a majority of
Palestinians is supportive of a truce, where Palestinian
factions stop attacks on Israeli targets for three months,
they are doubtful that Israel will abide by any agreement.
Results
show that 74% support the truce agreement by most
Palestinian factions. Support for a truce in
Gaza (80%) was higher than in the West Bank
(71%).
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61%
approves of a renewal of the truce for another three
months, with 66% in Gaza and
59% in the West Bank. One third of the respondents oppose
any renewal of the truce.
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75% feel
that the factions must abide by the truce agreement.
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This
is despite the fact that 77% believe that
Israel will not abide the truce agreement.
4. Elections
A majority supports the
conduct of an election in the near future. The same majority
intends to participate.
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74% support
a legislative council election and 73% support local
elections. Support for presidential elections is 61%.
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77% will
participate if elections take place, 19% will not
participate.
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If the
opposition calls for a boycott, 57% intend to participate
and 29% will boycott.
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65% intend
to register for the elections.
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While at the
same time, 65% said that they do no have sufficient
information on how to register.
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Future
elections promise a significant turnover of elected
officials; 55% say that they will vote for new candidates
for the legislative council and only 16% intend to
re-elect the current representatives. The same applies to
current members of local councils, where about 19% said
that they will vote for incumbents, and 57% said they will
elect new candidates.
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Honesty and
a role in serving the community are the most important
criteria identified as desirable candidate traits by
respondents, followed by educational attainment and
religiosity. Respondents say that the role in the
struggle, party membership and familial relationships will
not play major role in their selection of a candidate (see
table with complete results).
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Table (2): Percentage
of Respondents stating that the following
characteristics are important or very important when
voting for a candidate |
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|
West Bank |
Gaza |
Total |
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1) Honesty |
98.5 |
98.6 |
98.5 |
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2) Role in serving
community |
96.7 |
97.9 |
97.1 |
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3) Educational attainment |
95.0 |
94.5 |
95.2 |
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4) Religiosity |
85.5 |
88.1 |
86.5 |
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5) Role in the struggle |
82.1 |
83.2 |
82.6 |
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6) Political affiliation |
40.8 |
31.2 |
37.3 |
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7) Family ties |
26.0 |
24.0 |
25.2 |
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Respondents
further identified honesty and transparency, commitment to
the rule of law and ability to resolve social problems as
the most important characteristics that President of the
country must possess, followed closely by the ability to
face challenges emanating from the Israeli Occupation,
commitment to religious values and commitment to
democracy.
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Table (3): Percentage
of Respondents stating that the following
characteristics are important or very important when
voting for a future president |
|
|
West Bank
|
Gaza |
Total |
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Honesty |
98.8 |
99.1 |
98.8 |
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Committed to the rule of
law |
96.8 |
98.4 |
97.3 |
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Able to resolve social
problems |
96.2 |
94.8 |
95.7 |
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Able to end the Occupation |
95.3 |
94.8 |
95.2 |
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Possesses international
diplomacy skills |
95.0 |
94.2 |
94.7 |
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Committed to Islamic
values |
93.1 |
97.1 |
94.5 |
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Possesses global awareness |
90.6 |
89.0 |
90.0 |
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Possesses a college degree |
88.9 |
91.8 |
89.9 |
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Able to achieve democracy |
87.2 |
86.8 |
87.1 |
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Possesses military
experience |
87.9 |
85.6 |
87.0 |
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Active in the national
struggle |
78.3 |
84.7 |
80.6 |
5.
Political affiliation
The political scene has
experienced drastic changes since the start of the second
Palestinian Intifada and the re-occupation of most West Bank
and Gaza lands by Israel. In 1996, support for Islamic
groups did not exceed 20%, while support for Fateh was over
45%. The current poll confirms a rise in support for
(Islamist) groups and (independents), and decline in support
for nationalist and leftist groups:
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44%
expressed no support for any existing political party or
faction. This is an increase from about 30% in 1996.
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26%
expressed support for Fateh (the main nationalist faction
headed by President Yasser Arafat). A little over 6%
expressed support for all leftist groups listed in the
poll. Of these groups, the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) receives the most votes
(2.6%). At the same time, about 18% expressed support for
Hamas and about 6.5% for Islamic Jihad.
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When
independents were asked to select the party they
sympathize with the most, 7.2% said that they sympathize
with an Islamic faction. Very few expressed sympathy with
nationalist or leftist groups.
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This had an
impact on the voting patterns of the respondents. When
asked to vote for one of the listed parties in an upcoming
election, votes for all parties (especially Hamas)
exceeded the percentage of declared support as expressed
in the previous question.
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If they were
to vote according to party lists, respondents made the
following choices: Islamists (32.5%), Fateh (29.6%), and
leftists (7.6%). Still one third would not vote for any of
the parties listed in the poll.
6.
Attitudes towards freedom and equality
Palestinians support the
principles of freedom of expression and equality before the
law.
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96% of the
respondents said that the law should guarantee freedom of
expression.
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77% believe
the law must guarantee the freedom to form political
parties and the freedom to work.
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77% support
a legislative council based on proportional
representation.
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