Background:

·        The poll was conducted during a very strict closure imposed by the Israeli forces all over the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Hundreds of roadblocks were erected preventing Palestinians from access to work; education; and health services. In addition, invasions and curfews continued during the fieldwork. Jenin and Rafah were under strict curfew. Tens of Palestinians were killed and hundreds were injured.

·        Israeli attacks resulted also in demolishing hundreds of houses. At the same time, Israel continues to build a wall which is leading to the confiscation of hundreds of dunums, uprooting thousands of trees, and isolating Palestinian villages and separating them from the rest of the community.

·        Israel continued its assassination policy; Ismael Abu Shanab _ a Hamas leader was killed on 21/8/2003. Other political leaders of Hamas were also targeted including Ahmad Yaseen, the spiritual leader for the movement, and Ismael Haniyeh (6/10/2003). In addition, Mahmoud Elzahhar was also targeted (10/9/2003); while he survived with an injury, his eldest son and guard were killed and most of the family members were injured.

·        Attacks against Israeli targets continued. Most notably was the one in Maxim Restaurant in Haifa were 18 Israelis were killed (4/10/2003). Two attacks in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv (10/9/2003) resulted in the death of 15 Israelis, most of them soldiers.

·        On 11/9/2003, the Israeli Government took a decision to expel President Yaser Arafat. A number of Israeli cabinet members went on to declare that Israel intends to kill the President. As a reaction, thousands of  Palestinians marched in support of the President.

·        The cabinet, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, resigned on 6/9/2003 (120 days after its appointment). This was the first government ever to headed by a prime minister. One of the stated reasons for the resignation was the disputes over authorities between the president and the prime minister especially over control of security agencies.

·        President Yaser Arafat announced a state of emergency on 5/10/2003, after the Haifa attack. An emergency government was formed headed by Ahmad Quree including seven ministers. Several political groups objected to this announcement. A debate ensued over the legitimacy of an emergency government in view of the Basic Law. Doubts were raised by Legislative Council members including Fateh members. Mr. Ahmad Quree declared that he will not accept the post. At a later stage, it was agreed that the government will go on as an emergency government for one month.

   Fieldwork:

• The field work was done under extreme conditions. The Gaza Strip was divided into four parts; West Bank cities were under strict closure resulting in a ban on travel by the researchers. In other cases the work was delayed. Some researchers had to stay away from home as they were denied access to their home towns as they returned from the field.
• Most of the researchers were obliged to walk long distances or to wait for hours at Israeli check points. Some were harassed by Israeli soldiers. Danger of being shot by Israeli forces was imminent in a number of cases. Some Field workers were harassed and detained for hours.
• After several attempts and detailed planning our teams were able to conduct the required interviews in Jenin and Rafah (both under curfew and continuing Israeli attacks). The DSP had to work very hard to minimize the risks surrounding the field work (including careful planning, continuous follow-up, making available a hotline, and making sure that each team is carrying a mobile telephone).
• Contingency plans were prepared; replacements for field researchers were made available. Researchers were provided with alternative routes to reach locations. Alternative localities to replace inaccessible ones were selected through proper sample selection. The researchers were denied any access to four villages in the West Bank  (Froush Beit Dajan, Beit Foureek, Alnasaryeh, Oubween).
• These difficulties did not stop the team from following the most rigorous scientific methods in implementing the research.

Main Results:

• A majority of the Palestinians (63%) look positively at the performance of President Arafat (an 11 points increase since Feb. 2002).
• The monthly income of 75% of Palestinian families is less than $385; equal to $1.90 per day for each member of the average 6.7-member household.
• 64% have no sense of security for themselves, their families or their possessions.
• The majority of Palestinians (70%) support a halt to attacks against Israeli civilians; 53% on the condition that Israel reciprocates.
• 41% of the Palestinians believe that neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians achieved anything in the last three years of Intifada.
• Only 41% support the formation of an emergency government under Ahmad Qurei (Abu Ala), with 39% opposed,
• A majority are in favor of a constitution based on equality between citizens Moslems or Christians, women or men.
• 10% said that they are members in one of the Palestinian political groups.
• Political support: 29% for Fateh, 28% for Islamic bloc, and 5% for the left.
• 51% support separation between religion and state.

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Result analysis:

First Section: Living Conditions

Living conditions:

·           28% of Palestinian families have no breadwinners.

·           5% of Palestinian families have no monthly income.

·           The monthly income for 30% of Palestinian families is less than $160.

·           The monthly income of 75% of Palestinian families is less than $385; equal to $1.90 per day for each member of an average 6.7-member household.

·           60% stated that monthly income is not enough to cover their families’ basic needs. 11% stated that their monthly income was sufficient.

·           42% described their families’ economic situation as bad or very bad.

Security:

·           64% have no sense of security for themselves, their families or their possessions.

·           40% are pessimistic about the future; 35% are optimistic about the future and 25% are uncertain.

·           20% would emigrate if they had the chance. 79% said they would not emigrate if given the opportunity.

Second section: The Intifada

·           83% believe that the Intifada continues. 13% believe it is over.

·           62% express dissatisfaction with the course of the Intifada. 43% remain optimistic that the intifada will achieve positive results for the Palestinian cause. 32% disagree.

·           The majority of Palestinians (70%) support a halt to attacks against Israeli civilians; 53% on the condition that Israel reciprocates. In the same context, 50% believe attacks against Israeli civilians have not served the Palestinian cause. Out of them 34% believe they have produced negative results for the Palestinian cause. 44% see operations against Israeli civilians as having produced positive results.

·           41% of Palestinians believe that neither Israelis nor Palestinians have achieved anything positive during the last three years of the Intifada. 30% believe that Palestinians have achieved more than Israel during this period and 25% believe that Israel has achieved more.

 

Third section: Palestinian Leadership and the Emergency Government

Attitudes towards the declared state of emergency and the emergency government are mixed while support for Yaser Arafat has increased. Expressions of support for the President are linked to the preliminary decision taken by the Israeli cabinet to deport Arafat.

·           A majority of Palestinians (63%) positively view the performance of President Arafat, 24% evaluated his performance as satisfactory, whereas 10% evaluated his performance negatively. Positive evaluation of the performance of Yaser Arafat has increased from 52% in February 2002 to 63% today.

·           72% are not certain of the meaning and connotations of the state of declared by Yaser Arafat on 5/10/2003. However, there is high support for the articles regarding a state of emergency in the basic law.

·           63% favor the President’s declaration of the state of emergency. Only 41%, support the formation of an emergency government under Ahmd Qurei (Abu Ala), with 39% opposed,

·           31% are optimisticc and 30% are of a mixed opinion. regarding the ability of the emergency government to improve living conditions in the Palestinian territories. 33% are pessimisti

·           48% believe that the new government will be able to improve the performance of government institutions. However, 52% believe that the new government will not be able to fight corruption inside government institutions. 45% believe that the government will be able to unify the security agencies.

·           77% believe in the importance of giving the emergency government an opportunity to execute its proposed plans.

The New Cabinet

·           35% believe that the emergency government is not qualified to address current challenges. 21% believe that it is qualified. 30% see the composition of the new emergency government as weak. 23% have a positive opinion on this matter.

·           The results show a public with limited familiarity when it comes to the membership of the new government. In the case of certain ministers, a majority were unable to make a judgment, positive or negative, due to lack of familiarity.

     The results indicate recognition of former ministers, especially those involved in negotiations with Israel.

• Of those familiar with the membership, the following show the levels of satisfaction with the appointments:

Comparing the new government with the one that preceded it under Abu Mazen, attitudes of the polled were as follows:

• 41% believe that Ahmad Quree’s government stands a better chance. 40% are not optimistic that the new government will fare any better than Abu Mazen’s.
• As for confidence in a government headed by Abu Ala or Abu Mazen, 61% express a lack of confidence in either. 19% express confidence in a government led by Abu Ala and 6% in a government headed by Mahmoud Abbas.

Priorities

The Palestinian public sees Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian cities as the number one priority (51%). 19% point to improving the economy and 9% indicate rooting out corruption as the top priorities.

Section four: Palestinian-Israeli Relations

• 61% of Palestinians support a return to negotiations with Israel. 37% oppose.
• Palestinians are split on the issue of the road map. 35% support implementation and 34% oppose. 24% support aspects of the road map.
• 87% of Palestinians believe that Israel is not committed to peace.
• 72% believe that Israel will thwart efforts by the new government headed by Abu Ala.
• 67% believe the United States will obstruct efforts by the emergency government headed by Ahmad Quree.
• 75% believe that the United States is not serious about implementing the road map.

Section five: Political Preferences

Majority not affiliated with any of the existing Palestinian political groups.

• The majority (88%) state that they are not members of any of the political groups. 10% claim membership.
• 48% expressed that they don’t support any existing political group.
• 26% expressed support for Fateh, 4% support the leftist parties, 19% support Hamas and 4% support Islamic Jihad.
• When asked about their preferences, 5% of independents have a tendency towards the Islamic approach, 3% towards Fateh and 1% towards the left.
• At the time of the polling, the Palestinian street was divided as follows: 29% in support of Fateh, 28% for Islamic Bloc, 5% for the left and 39% uncommitted.

Section six: Identity and the political-social system :

The poll confirms deep consideration for democracy, freedom and the principles of equality and pluralism in Palestinian law and society. Despite concern about religion and the rise of religious tendencies in the political sphere, a significant percentage believes in the importance of a separation between religion and state.

Sources of Legislation

• 26% believe that legislation should stem from the principle of equal rights for all Palestinian irrespective of religion, sex, race, handicap or political affiliation.
• 13% believe legislation should be based on universal principles of human rights, international treaties and the civil law.
• 38% believe Islamic Shari’a should be the only source of legislation.
• 17% see Islamic Shari’a as a main source of legislation combined with respect paid to universal principles of human rights and the international treaties.

Characteristics of the State

• 56% see religion as the chief characteristic of a future Palestinian state, 32% see democracy as the main characteristic. 6% also see a future state in socialist terms and 6% Arab nationalist.
• 82% support a constitution based on equality between Muslims and Christians. 76% support a constitution based on equality between sexes.
• A majority of Palestinians believe in tolerance and pluralism and desire a community based on principles of equal rights and individual freedoms. Palestinian attitudes on a range of social issues is as follows:

1.      No imposition of religion, 94%

2.      A woman’s right to choose her spouse, 93%

3.      Religion is for God and the state is for every citizen, 88%

4.      Women’s right to work, 87%

5.      Democratic system in the Palestinian state, 81%

6.      Religion is a personal matter, 81%

7.      Political parties must be allowed freedom to function, 67%

8.      Palestinian political system must be based on the concept of pluralism, 59%

9.      Separation between religion and state, 51%