Development Studies Programme - Birzeit University
         
 
Poll No. 18

Palestinian Elections and Registration

[ Analysis of Results ] [ Detailed Results ] [ Sample Distribution ] [ PDF Format ] [ In Arabic ]

Analysis of Results

1. General Background - Palestinian Elections
  • The need to hold new presidential and legislative elections was at the core of the Palestinian and international calls for reform within the PA. The Road Map stipulated the need to prepare the ground for elections in Palestinian areas as part of the over-all reform process. This was also part of the 100-day plan endorsed by the Palestinian government in mid-2002.
  • President Arafat issued a decree in October 2002 to establish the Palestinian Central Elections Commission to prepare for general elections.
  • The Central Elections Commission prepared plans to hold elections within 100 days from an date of an Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian areas. A tentative date was set January 20, 2003.
  • The PA released a statement on January 20, 2003 holding Israel responsible for the disruption of the elections due to be held on that date.
  • The Ministerial Reform Committee prepared a new draft of the Elections Law on August 2003, stressing that the previous election law is the basic framework for the legislative elections based on the principle of majority vote within 16 electoral districts with specified numbers of seats.
  • The process of voter registration in the West Bank and Gaza Strip began on September 4, 2004 in over than 1000 centers and is due to continue until October 7, 2004.
  • Hamas declared its support and intent to participate in elections in a statement that was released on the first day of registration.
  • There are eight parties and political organizations involved in the oversight of the registration process. Other than Hamas, they include the Popular Struggle Front, PFLP, Palestinian People's Party, Fida, the Palestinian National Initiative, the Arab Front, the Liberation Front and the Islamic Salvation Party.
  • The Israeli authority sought to disrupt election registration procedures especially in East Jerusalem where some registration centers were shut down and staff detained.
  • 82 local bodies announced plans to monitor the elections, in addition to three international bodies. They involve 5500 local and international observers.
  • The PLC terminated the Local Elections Committee on August 31, 2004, and assigned the responsibility for them to the Central Elections Commission. The PLC allowed the Local Council Elections Committee to proceed with its work for the current elections only. The legislative body declared that elections for the local councils will be held in phases starting from December 10, 2004.
  • There are 130 small local bodies known as project committees, 252 village councils and 121 municipal councils. Only 36 communities will have local elections in the first phase during December 2004 (none of them is major center).
  • The PLC approved in its session held on August 31, 2004 a proposed amendment to the local council elections, allocating 20% of the seats in municipal and local councils to women. The amendment is still controversial.

2. The Results
First Part: The Registration Process and Attitudes
  1. Information availability and knowledge of about registration procedures
    - 89% declared that they have already heard about election registration
    - 63 % declared that they do not have information about registration procedures.
    - 33% of those polled did not know where to register, while 67% declared that they actually knew where to register.
    - In general, the data reveal that women, the poor, the elderly, the less educated, urban dwellers and those living in northern Gaza and the center of the West Bank have less information on registration procedures or knowledge about registration locations (as detailed in the following table).

    Table (1): Information availability according to social variables

     

    Gender

    Age

    Education

    Economic Situation

     

    Female

    Male

    17-26

    27-40

    41-52

    Over 52

    Preparatory or less

    secondary

    Diploma or above

    Good

    Medium

    Bad

    Heard about registration process

    86%

    92%

    90%

    90%

    87%

    88%

    87%

    94%

    97%

    89%

    91%

    88%

    Know where to go to register

    58%

    76%

    74%

    63%

    68%

    59%

    62%

    79%

    84%

    72%

    70%

    62%

    Know about the registration procedures

    30%

    43%

    40%

    38%

    32%

    31%

    31%

    47%

    62%

    39%

    40%

    32%

     

    Type of residence

    Region

     

    City

    Village

    Camp

    Southern W. Bank

    Middle West Bank

    Northern West Bank

    Northern Gaza

    Gaza city

    Middle &Southern Gaza

    Heard about registration

    88%

    90%

    90%

    91%

    78%

    94%

    83%

    91%

    93%

    Know about registration procedures  

    30%

    36%

    36%

    38%

    27%

    51%

    34%

    27%

    39%

    Know where to go to register

    59%

    74%

    70%

    70%

    60%

    75%

    58%

    61%

    70%

  2. Sources of information concerning registration for elections
    The following sources of information were utilized by the respondents:
    - Banners 54%.
    - TV and Radio 44%.
    - Local papers 31%.
    - Phone calls 12%.
    - Other means 31% (such as school, work place, relatives, friends, and neighbors):
  3. Registration for elections:
    - (13%) declared that they have already registered between 4-11 September, 2004 (almost 8 days after the start of registration).
    - Women, the elderly, the less educated, the poor and the rich, urban dwellers, living in and around Gaza city and those in the middle of the West Bank were at the time of this survey, the least registered for elections.

    Table (2): Registering for elections according to social variables

     

    Gender

    Age

    Education

    Economic Situation

     

    Female

    Male

    17-26

    27-40

    41-52

    Over 52

    Preparatory or less

    secondary

    Diploma or above

    Good

    Medium

    Bad

    Actually registered

    8%

    18%

    14%

    13%

    15%

    12%

    11%

    17%

    21%

    12%

    15%

    12%

     

    Type of Residence

    Region

     

    City

    Village

    Camp

    Southern W. Bank

    Middle West Bank

    Northern West Bank

    Northern Gaza

    Gaza city

    Middle &Southern Gaza

    Actually registered

    8%

    17%

    16%

    12%

    11%

    19%

    14%

    9%

    17%

  4. Intent to register and expected registration rates
    - 53% of those polled or 58% of the currently unregistered voters indicated that they intend to register before the end of the registration period.
    - If such intentions are fulfilled, the rate of registration is expected to be (66%): 13% already registered and 53% intend to do so.
    - Women, youth, the poor, the least-educated, urban and camp dwellers, people in the middle part of the West Bank are the least inclined to register in the coming period.

    Table (3): Intent to register according to social variables

     

    Gender

    Age

    Education

    Economic Situation

     

    Female

    Male

    17-26

    27-40

    41-52

    Over 52

    Preparatory or less

    secondary

    Diploma or above

    Good

    Medium

    Bad

    Shall register

    53%

    63%

    55%

    58%

    64%

    58%

    57%

    59%

    64%

    61%

    59%

    55%

     

    Type of Residence

    Region

     

    City

    Village

    Camp

    Southern West Bank

    Middle West Bank

    Northern West Bank

    Northern Gaza

    Gaza city

    Middle &Southern Gaza

    Shall register

    55%

    62%

    54%

    63%

    41%

    61%

    57%

    62%

    59%


    - A 66% registration rate would an increase over earlier projections. According to a poll conducted by DSP in January, 2004, 60% said they would register. - The registration targets conform with attitudes towards participation in elections (see below).

Second part: Position on Holding and Participation in the Election

- 73% are in favor of holding presidential elections.
- Support for holding legislative elections is 82%.
- Support for holding local council elections in 85%.
- 68% intend to participate in presidential elections (the figure was 75% in January 2004).
- 65% intend to participate in local council elections (this was 72% in last January 2004).
- 69% intend to participate in the legislative elections (66% in January 2004).
- If the opposition were to call for an election boycott, 71% declared that they would ignore the call.
- The results indicate similar trends in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. However, there is slightly more readiness to participate in elections in the Gaza Strip.

Third Part: Election Blocs

1. Fatah bloc, Islamic bloc, and leftist bloc.
- 34% of those polled indicated that they would vote for Fatah and its partners in case elections are held on the basis of blocs.
- 32% would vote for the Islamic bloc (Hamas and Jihad).
- Support for the leftist bloc was 4%.
- 30% indicated that they would not vote to any of the three above-mentioned blocs.
2. Regarding political support, Fatah got 29% of the support of those polled, Hamas 24%, Islamic Jihad 3% and the combined leftist groups, 4%, 39% do not support any of those factions.

Fourth Part: Election for the President of the PA
  1. Scenario One: Arafat is the favorite choice among 11 candidates of various tendencies. Among those polled on presidential elections. The results were as follows :
    - President Arafat received 46% of the vote.
    - Marwan Barghouthi 12%.
    - No other Fatah affiliated candidate came close to that in the poll (such as Muhammed Dahlan 1.6%, Sa'eb Erekat 1.2%, Ahmad Qurei 1%, Mahmoud Abbas 0.5%).
    - Among Islamist candidates Mahmoud Zahhar got 9%, and Isma'il Haniye 8%.
    - Amongst of the democratic current, Haydar Abdul Shafi got 6%, Mustafa Barghouthi 1.7% and Hanan Ashrawi 1.4%.
    - 12% of those polled expressed that they would not vote to any of the eleven above-mentioned candidates.
  2. In a line up of Presidential candidates from the three main streams (Fatah, the Islamists and the democratic current), the results were as follows:
    The second scenario with: Arafat topping between three candidates:
        Yasir Arafat 58%
        Mahmoud Zahhar 25%
        Haydar Abdel Shafi 13%
  3. Other Scenarios:
    Marwan Barghouthi, representing Fateh, against candidates from the Islamist and democratic current:
        Marwan Barghouthi 51%
        Isma'il Haniya 28%
        Mustafa Barghuth: 11%
    Mohammed Dahlan, representing Fateh, against candidates from the Islamist and democratic current:
        Isma'il Haniya 40%
        Mustafa Barghouthi 32%
        Mohammed Dahlan 14%
    Sa'eb Ereikat, representing Fateh, against candidates from the Islamist and democratic current candidates, with Mahmoud Zahhar gaining more votes:
        Mahmoud Zahhar 44%
        Sa'eb Erekat 24%
        Hanan Ashrawi 19%
  4. Additional remarks
    - Higher support for Arafat among those polled in the West Bank compared to those in the Gaza strip.
    - Higher support for the Islamist candidate for the presidency in the Gaza strip compared to the West Bank.
    - Equal support for Marwan Barghouthi among those polled in the West Bank and the Gaza strip.

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