Dates of fieldwork: 5-7/12, 2005

Number of field researchers: 75

Margin of error (+ or ─): + 5% 

Sample size: 1293 Palestinians in 11 localities  

*         For further information or queries, contact team coordinator          Dr. Nader Said or Polling coordinator Ayman Abdul Majeed at the listed address or through our website.

 

*         Many thanks go to our field researchers, and the International Republican Institute (IRI) for their support.

Highlights:

·        Fateh is likely to win in the municipalities of Jenin, Al-Fukhari, Al-Qararah, Um Al-Nasser (Gaza).

·        Hamas is likely to win in the municipalities of Nablus and Al-Bireh.

·        PFLP is likely to win in the municipality of Maythaloun (Jenin), and in the municipality of Ramallah (but only with independents).

·        Woman-led bloc is likely to gain the most votes in Ramallah municipality.

·        Honesty, integrity and service to the community ranks well above other criteria when selecting a candidate in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections.

·        Affiliation with an Islamic bloc, familial relations and wealth of a candidate are least important.

·        Majority expects broader reform and participation, and improved living conditions after PLC elections.

·        Majority does not expect that PLC elections will lead to an independent state.

·        86% believe that PLC elections will be “fair” or “fair to an extent”.

·        37% would vote for Fatah, 20% for Hamas, and above 5% for “Independent Palestine” in the PLC elections.

Analysis of Results

Part One: December 15, 2005 Municipal Elections

Please note the following:

• This poll was conducted in only 11 locations, eight of them in the West Bank and three in the Gaza Strip.
• Results are based on a representative sample of the municipalities under study, however, do not represent a comprehensive sample for all voters in the West Bank and Gaza.  The margin of error is +/-5.
• A large percentage of voters had not yet decided for whom they would vote, and municipal election campaigns were ongoing at the time of polling, factors which will have a measurable impact on final results.

1.   General Results:

• Fatah is likely to win the largest number of votes in Jenin (in coalition with PFLP), Al-Fukhari, Al-Qararah and Um-Al-Nasr in Gaza Strip.
• Hamas is likely to win the largest number of votes in Nablus (majority) and Al-Bireh.
• Independent lists are likely to win the largest of votes in Ramallah, Saffarin (Tulakrem) and Deir-Jarir (Ramallah).
• In Maythaloun (Jenin), a list affiliated with PFLP is likely to win the largest number of votes.
• Hamas, Fatah and Independents remain competitive in Deir Sharaf (Nablus).

Results According to Municipality

• Nablus

Results indicate that the bloc of Reform and Change (Hamas) will sweep the elections with 55% of the votes.  Filastin Al-Ghad (The Future Palestine) is polling at 15%.  Al-A’ahd Li-Nablus (Promise to Nablus) has 7% of the vote (both Blocs support Fatah).  Al-Mustaqbal (the Future) and Al-Wafa’ and Tanmiyeh (Fidelity and Development) will each receive 3%.  However, undecided votes were a significant 18 % of the electorate at the time of polling.

• Jenin

The Martyrs of Jenin bloc (a coalition of FATAH & PFLP) is in the lead with 48% of the total seats.  Reform and Change (Hamas) is likely to win 24%; the Future Jenin is polling at 9%; Jenin for All has 5% of the vote; Fidelity and Reform is at 4%; and the bloc of Baladna (our Home Town) is at 2%, leaving undecided votes in Jenin at 8%.

• Ramallah

Woman-led Ramallah for All (bloc of independents, leftists PFLP and Mubadara) is carrying almost 38% of the vote, however, will have fierce competition from Al-Watan (The Homeland), affiliated with FATAH polling at 32%.  Reform and Change has 22% of the votes, with the undecided vote around 8%.

• Al-Bireh

Reform and Change (Hamas) has 44% of the votes in al-Bireh, whereas the Fidelity Block for Al-Aqsa (Fatah) carries 27%.  Al-Bireh for All is not far behind with 22%, and undecided are at 8%.

Filastin Al-Ghad (the Future Palestine, Fatah), the only factionally affiliated list in Deir-Jarir has 13% of the votes.  Hamas does not have an official bloc in Deir-Jarir.  Independent list Baladna Al-Muwahda (our United Hometown) carries 28%; Deir-Jarir for All has 19 %; the Sons of the Town is at 13 %; Al-Quds (Jerusalem) is tracking at 10 % and Al-Mustaqbal (the Future) is at 5%.  The undecided vote is 12%.  Distribution of the votes with no definitive majority makes it impossible to determine who will assume leadership of the municipality.

• Maythaloun (Jenin area)

Sons of the Homeland (PFLP) is in the lead with 35% of the vote.  Reform and Development (Hamas) has 20%, whereas “Future Palestine” (Fatah) is close at 17%.  Martyrs of Maythaloun (Fatah) has 16%, for a combined Fatah total of 33%.  Maythaloun for All has11% of the votes.

Future Palestine (Fatah) and Reform and Change (Hamas) are neck and neck at 27% each.  Al-Karamah (Dignity) has 15 % of the vote; Sons of the Homeland are at 15%; Future of Deir-Sharaf 6%; We Are the Change has 5%, with undecided votes pegged at 5%.

• Saffarin (Tulkarem area)

Saffarin for Change is an independent, family-based list with close ties to Hamas, currently polling at 55%.  Future Palestine (Fatah) is trailing at 41% of the votes.  Undecided voters in Saffarin measure only 4%.

• Al-Fukhari (Gaza area)

Al-Aqsa (Fatah) has 18% of the votes.  In addition, Yaser Arafat bloc (Fatah affiliated) has sewn up 33% of the votes, vying for first place with Islamic Fukhari (Hamas) at 31%.  Independent lists Sons of Al-Fukhari and Fidelity to the Land are polling at 10% and 7%, respectively.

Fidelity for Al-Aqsa (Fatah) has a strong 40% of the votes.  Martyrs of Al-Qararah (Fatah affiliated) has 25 %, with Hamas’ Change and Islamic Reform slightly up at 29 %.  Nationalist for Justice and Equality (PPP/PFLP) is trailing at 5%, while the DFLP list, Democratic Change did not track.

• Um-Al-Nasr (Gaza area)

Martyr Yaser Arafat (Fatah) has 43% of the votes, along with 13% for Fatah affiliated Fidelity to Al-Aqsa.  Change and Reform has 17 %, whereas Fatah-supportive Independents, Promise is at 11%.  Um-Al-Nasr (independents tied to Hamas) is carrying 8% of the vote, while United Sons of the Um-Al-Nasr Village (PPP) trails at 6%.

 Part Two: The Legislative Elections

Please note that the following results were obtained in 11 locations only, eight in the West Bank and three in the Gaza Strip.  They do not necessarily represent the West Bank and Gaza Strip in their entirety.

1.            Information about the PLC Elections

• 76% of respondents have been following news about the legislative elections.
• 44% of respondents get their information about the elections from local TV stations; 25 % from public meetings and forums; 13% from Palestinian Radio; and 8% each from newspapers and campaign literature.
• 25% think they’ve received adequate information about PLC elections, 37% adequate to a certain extent, but a majority 39 % feel that they’ve received inadequate information.

2.            Voting Criteria in Selecting Candidates for PLC Elections

• Character is the most important determinant when selecting candidates, with voters scrutinizing their contributions to the community at large.  Honesty, integrity and sincerity followed closely by candidates’ service to the community rank well above other criteria tested.  Candidates’ education, position on economic, social and political issues, respectively followed.  At seventh place was religiosity followed by role in the national struggle, political party affiliation, affiliation with an Islamic party (such as Hamas), family ties and the candidate’s own financial position.

3.            Expectations from the Elections

• Over 70% of respondents believe that the elections for the Legislative Council will lead to strengthening the public’s role in the political process; enhancing peoples’ participation; reinforcing rule of law; reforming PA institutions; improving economic conditions, women’s status and social conditions.
• Approximately 2/3 believe that the elections will lead to an end to internal lawlessness; representation for marginalized groups such as women and youth; promoting democracy; reforming the political system and yet, though simultaneously, it will consolidate the current political system.
• Less than half believe that the elections will lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian State or imposition of political solution on Palestinians.

4.            Fairness of the PLC Elections

• 56% believe that the forthcoming elections will be fair, whereas 30% feel it will be fair to a certain extent.  In contrast, only 13 % think that they will not be fair.

5.            Women’s Participation

• 78% would vote for a Palestinian woman running for legislative council.

6.            Popularity of the blocks running in the PLC Elections

A. Distribution of Votes by Party/Bloc

I.       Fatah won 37 % of the votes, whereas Hamas won 20%.  Independent Palestine headed by Dr. Mustafa Al-Barghouthi won 4.5% of the votes.  In fourth place, an independent block headed by Hanan Ashrawi won 2.6% of the votes.  PFLP took 2% and Badil (Alternative, Leftist coalition) won 1% of the votes.  More than 1/3 of those surveyed are undecided.  The outcome of the PLC elections will be largely decided by those who have yet to decide.

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