Public Opinion Poll # 8
Palestinian Elections
Palestinian
Women and Elections
Reforming
Palestinian Institutions
Attitudes
toward U.S. Assistance
Priorities
for Funding
Negotiations
|
Date of publication: August 12, 2002 Date of field research: July 31 – August 3, 2002 Sample selection: Multi-stage, random and representative Sample size: 1,200 Palestinians in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip Number of sample locations: 75 locations Percentage of error: (+/- 3%) |
|
*For more
details, please contact Dr. Nader Said (at the listed numbers or at
059-204527),
or visit the
Development Studies Programme's homepage at: http//:home.birzeit.edu/dsp
·
75 Field researchers
·
Team Coordinator: Nader Said,
DSP Director
·
Field research:
Ayman Abdul-Majeed (Fieldwork Coordinator), Ayoub Mustapha (Data
entry/Statistician), Ghassan Abu Hatab, Nida’ Abu-Taha, Emad Zehed, Abdel Aziz
Abu Shamaleh, Rania Asmar, Mohammad Alaraj, Saed Zakarneh, Maysa Jayousi (Field
supervisors).
·
Technical and administrative
team: Noran Nassif, Maysa Barghouthi,
Bassam Almohor, Raqia Abu Ghoush, Nawal Abu-Hadid, Shahnaz Jubran, Jibril
Hijeh.
·
Steering Committee:
Ramzi Rihan:
Vice-President for Planning and Development (Birzeit University)
Jamil Hilal:
DSP Senior Consultant
Ibrahim Makkawi:
DSP Senior Researcher
Reema Hamami:
Chairperson of the Post-Graduate Programme at the Women’s Studies Institute
(Birzeit University)
Mu’in Rajab:
Professor of Economics (Al-Azhar University)
Jamil Rabah:
Survey Research Expert
Hassan Abu-Hassan:
Professor of Statistics (Birzeit University)
· All
results represent the opinions of the respondents and do not represent the
viewpoint of Birzeit University or the Development Studies Programme or any
other related body.
· For
details on our methodology, refer to our web page.
· Many
thanks go to our field researchers, and to our friends at the International
Republican Institute (IRI) for their support.
Political
Context
●
This survey was conducted under the re-occupation of the territories, which were
under the control of the PNA, by the Israeli forces during the month of June.
During this time, a total curfew was imposed on the various Palestinian cities.
Furthermore, the assassination of Palestinian leaders, random bombing and
illegal executions of Palestinian activists became the daily practices of the
Israeli occupation.
●
A wide range of environmental and health problems affecting the Palestinian
community have intensified as a result of the continuing conditions of
re-occupation and closure.
● Poverty rates have been on the increase
(over 70% live under the poverty line) and living conditions have been
deteriorating. A USAID funded study has revealed that 30% of Palestinian
Children are malnourished.
●
The PNA and the various Palestinian factions came close to reaching an
agreement to halt operations aimed at Israeli civilians. However, the Israeli
bombing in Gaza on July 23rd which resulted in the massacre of 16
Palestinians among them 10 children and one of the leaders of Hamas, led to a wave
of counter attacks and escalation.
●
There has been an increased demand for comprehensive reform in the Palestinian
institutions, including the "hundred-days" plan for reform put forth
by the PNA, which still has not been discussed or shared with the Palestinian
public.
●
The Palestinian leadership has announced a possible date to hold presidential
and legislative elections on January 2003 and elections for the local councils
on March 2003.
●
The USA continues to pressure the Palestinian Authority under the pretext of
calling for reform and new elections in the Palestinian territories. Israel and
the USA have made “reforming the PNA” a prerequisite for political negotiations
and withdrawal from occupied territories.
The
fieldwork was conducted under extreme conditions. The main challenge facing our
field staff was their safety as they tried to reach the various locations in
order to conduct the interviews.
●
Because of the many roadblocks and checkpoints imposed by the Israeli army, our
field workers were forced to get to their destinations by foot, taking the risk
of being shot at in the process. In the Hebron area our staff had to walk for
several hours back and forth in order to interview participants in several
villages. The Israeli army invaded villages near Nablus while our field workers
were inside. In the Jenin village of Yabad, field researchers had to use dirt
roads and walk for several hours to get to their work destination as planned.
●
Due to closure and curfew, our field workers were unable to reach five
locations, which were designed to be included in the survey. Consequently,
these villages were substituted with another five comparable villages from the
same regions.
●
Our field workers conducting interviews in two villages in the Ramallah area
were unable to return to their homes in the city, which was put under curfew.
They were forced to sleep in the villages and later return to the city by foot.
●
In several areas such as Nablus, Bethlehem and the nearby village of Dawha,
fieldwork was conducted under military curfew.
● Our
staff were not deterred by these extreme conditions and conducted their field
work with a great commitment to rigorous scientific methods and fieldwork instructions.
●
The DSP had to employ additional field supervisors and researchers to be able
to cover the various regions of the West Bank. A hotline was kept open with the
supervisors who were in constant touch with the field researchers.
●
The DSP had to put together a fieldwork manual that details the large number of
scenarios under conflict situations and how to approach each one in the field.
Of course, the safety of our field workers was paramount. The main driving
force behind the success of the field research was the determination of field
workers to rise above the checkpoints, roadblocks, and the various impediments
enforced by the ongoing violence.
Summary of Results
·
54%
support presidential and legislative elections, 37% oppose.
·
70% supports conducting local
council elections.
·
76% will participate in the
elections; however, if the opposition calls for a boycott, only 59% intend to
vote.
·
If elections were to take place
today, the majority (55%) would vote for Mr. Yasser Arafat; 31% would not vote
for him. Over 60% of Palestinians planning to participate will give their vote
for Mr. Arafat. In contrast, 26% of those intending to vote said that they
would not for him.
·
A majority (over 60%) will not
re-elect their current representatives either at the legislative or local
council level.
·
37% believe that elections will
lead to significant changes in leadership.
·
The young are the most opposed
to women's participation in elections, and they are also the most inclined to
support Islamist political tendencies.
·
42% support a “democratic –
pluralistic” political system; an equal percentage (42%) supports an Islamic
one.
·
60% of the most educated prefer
a “democratic – pluralistic” system; 31% of them prefer an Islamic one.
·
The most important
characteristic of any president for Palestine is his/her ability to “confront
Israel” (74% said that was very important); the second most important
characteristic is “commitment to Islamic values” (70%).
·
81% of Palestinians do not know
the names of the new ministers in the newly formed - cabinet.
·
84% of respondents are not aware
of the “100-day reform plan” prepared by the new cabinet and submitted to
international donors.
·
26% feel that genuine reform is
being implemented; the rest feel that reform is being imposed by Israel and the
United Sates.
·
91% feel that the United States
is not serious about reform in Palestine; instead it is furthering its own
political agenda.
·
A majority (62%) feels that
donor countries are using funding to pressure the PNA to make further political
concessions.
·
61% support a boycott of
American governmental funding, while 39% support a boycott of American
non-governmental funding.
·
62% said that they are
boycotting Israeli products, while 63% said that they are boycotting American
products.
·
The top three most important
development – related priorities are education (31%), distribution of
assistance o the poor (26%), and health (13%).
·
55% support political
negotiations with Israel (a decline in support from 63% in May 2002 and 70% in
February 2002).
·
43% support security
negotiations and 51% oppose them.
·
50% of Palestinian respondents
are “optimistic” about the future; 29% are “pessimistic”.
Analysis of Results[1]
1) Unequivocal
Support for Local Council Elections; Less Support for Legislative and
Presidential Elections
Regarding proposed Palestinian elections for the presidency and the legislative council, tentatively scheduled for January 2003, the majority of those polled (54%) supports these elections, with higher support in Gaza (59%) than in the West Bank (51%). Still about (37%) are opposed to these elections with (35%) in Gaza and (39%) in the West Bank.
There was a greater degree
of support for the proposed local-council elections at (70%) with higher
support in Gaza (73%) than in the West Bank (68%). A minority of respondents
(21%) is opposed to local-council elections (20% of Gaza and 22% of the West
Bank).
There seems to be unanimous
support for local elections among all social strata of society. However, for
legislative and presidential elections, there is less support. Support for
presidential and legislative elections is the lowest among the most influential
groups in society (leaders of public opinion): the most educated, the
professionals, the men, NGOs employees, and the young. The following findings
show the gap between various social categories in regards to elections (see
table 1).
·
48%
of men support presidential and legislative elections, compared with 60% among
women. Support for municipal elections is at 70% among both men and women.
·
49%
of the age group 18-22 support presidential and legislative elections, compared
to 68% among the age group 38-42. Support for municipal election ranges between
65% and 70% among members of all age groups.
·
Only
31% of the professionals support presidential and legislative elections,
compared to 61% among housewives and 65% among farmers. Again, support for
municipal elections is widespread among all professions.
·
Only
30% of those working in NGOs are supportive of presidential and legislative
elections; this is compared to 51% among government employees and 45% among
private sector employees.
·
37%
of holders of college degrees are supportive, compared to 56% of illiterates.
|
Table (1): % of Support for Presidential and local elections |
||
|
|
Presidential/legislative |
Local |
|
Professionals |
31% |
64% |
|
Housewives |
61% |
70% |
|
BA+ |
37% |
69% |
|
Illiterate |
58% |
71% |
|
NGOs |
30% |
54% |
|
Government |
51% |
65% |
|
16-18
Yrs. Old |
60% |
64% |
|
52+
Yrs. Old |
53% |
70% |
2) Perceptions of elections: Doubts about the Objectives
·
38% believe that elections will lead to the establishment of a
Palestinian State
There were mixed reactions regarding the perception that these elections may speed up the process of establishing a Palestinian state. 38% believe the elections will speed up the process, with a higher percentage of (42%) in Gaza than in the West Bank (36%). In contrast, 34% do not believe that these elections will speed up the process of establishing a Palestinian state, with a higher degree of disbelief in the West Bank (36%) than in Gaza (31%).
·
37% believe that elections will lead to significant changes in
leadership
With reference to the
question of whether the proposed elections will lead to significant changes in
the current Palestinian leadership, 37% say they would lead to changes (42% in
Gaza compared to 36% in the West Bank). Similarly, about 34% said the elections
would not lead to changes in the Palestinian leadership (35% in Gaza and 33% in
the West Bank).
·
45% believe that elections will lead to reform of PNA institutions
As to the expectation that the
proposed elections would lead to reforms in the institutions of the Palestinian
Authority, 45% say they will (50% in Gaza and 42% in the West Bank). A smaller
percentage, 27% say they will not (25% in Gaza and 29% in the West Bank).
·
43% believe that elections will lead to improvement in economic
conditions
43% of the respondents
believe that elections will lead to an improvement in economic conditions (48%
in Gaza and 40% in the West Bank). In contrast, 27% of those polled do not
expect any economic improvement as a result of elections (24% in Gaza and 29%
in the West Bank).
·
47% believe that elections will not be fair
47% did not believe
elections will be free and fair (46% in Gaza and 48% in the West Bank). In
contrast 39% believe that elections will be free (44% in Gaza and 37% in the
West Bank). It is not clear from the poll whether these doubts are due to
perceptions of internal or external factors.
3) Voter Tendencies
·
Majority of Palestinians will not vote for their present representatives
Asked if they would re-elect
the same candidates once elections for the Palestinian legislative council are
held, 60% of the total sample say that they will not vote for the same
candidate again. Divided by region, the breakdown was 62% in Gaza and 59% in
the West Bank. A small minority of respondents (15%) will vote for the same
candidate (17% in Gaza and 14% in the West Bank).
Similar results were found
with regard to the re-election of the present members of local councils (almost
all of them were appointed by the Ministry Of Local Government). 61% say that
they will not vote for the present appointed members.
·
In general, “religious values” is the single most important criteria in
voting for a candidate. However, at the presidential level, ability to confront
Israel is deemed the most important criteria.
Respondents were asked to indicate what
they consider as the most important factor in the personal profile of
candidates. 34% say the religious values of the candidate (40% in Gaza and 31%
in the West Bank). The second most important factor, at 26%, is the candidate’s
level of education (24% in Gaza and 27% in the West Bank). The third most
important factor is the role played by the candidate in the national struggle
at 25%, with similar percentages recorded in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Interestingly, the candidate’s party membership and his/her family ties are
deemed important by less than 2% of the total sample and in each region.
In
this regard, the following is to be noted (see table 2):
· Women are more interested in candidate’s religious values than men (37% of women compared with 31% of the men). Men are equally interested in educational attainment with 30% of them selecting this factor to be most important when deciding to vote, compared with 23% of women.
·
39%
of youth (16-18) chose religious values as the most important criteria in
voting for a candidate, compared with 31% among those 28-32 and 28% among those
38-42, the latter are more interested in education and participation in the
national struggle.
·
Education
of the respondent is a decisive factor in these findings. Choosing religious
values as a criterion decreased with education. The educated groups choose
education as most important criteria for voting for a candidate (37% state that
they will vote based on education, compared with 21% of the illiterate
population). In contrast, 43% of the illiterate choose religious values as the
most important criteria, while 24% of the most educated feel the same way.
Table (2): Most Important Characteristic in a Candidate when Voting
|
||||||
|
Educational
attainment of respondent |
Illiterate |
Less
than 6 yrs. |
Between
6-9 yrs. |
Between
10-12 yrs. |
2-year
diploma |
BA
+ |
|
Religious
values |
43% |
35% |
34% |
27% |
33% |
24% |
|
Education |
21% |
28% |
28% |
24% |
24% |
37% |
|
Participation
in the national struggle |
19% |
24% |
27% |
36% |
19% |
23% |
4) Presidential Candidate Profile
Over 90% of the respondents believe that the following qualities are “very important” or “important” in a future president: ability to confront Israel, commitment to religious values, ability to resolve social and economic problems, commitment to democracy, and level of education.
When expressing the results in terms of percentage of those who believe that these qualities were “very important”, the results show that (75%) of the total sample considered the president’s ability to confront Israel as very important, with slightly higher percentage in Gaza. The president’s commitment to Islamic values is considered as very important by (71%) of the total sample, with (85%) in Gaza compared to (61%) in the West Bank.
59% consider the president’s capability to resolve the economic crisis as very important (67% in Gaza compared to 54% in the West Bank). The president’s historical record in the national struggle is considered as very important by 43% of the total sample (50% in Gaza compared to 39% in the West Bank). The president’s military background was considered as very important by (47%) on the total sample (56% in Gaza compared to 42% in the West Bank).
The presidents’ level of education is deemed to be very important by 55% of the sample (64% in Gaza compared to 49% in the West Bank). The president’s ability to achieve democracy is very important to 52% of the sample (65% in Gaza compared to 44% in the West Bank). As for the president’s skills in international diplomatic relations, 54% believe it is very important (62% in Gaza compared to 50% in the West Bank). And finally, the president’s openness to the world was considered as very important by 51% of the total sample (60% in Gaza compared to 45% in the West Bank).
The following table shows
that there is a broad consensus on the ability of a future president to be able
to confront Israel as the most important criteria. The consensus breaks down
when it comes to democracy and Islamic values.
|
Table (3): Evaluation of various characteristics of a president among
select social groups (% that said “very important”) |
|||
|
|
Characteristics
of a president |
||
|
|
Committed to Islamic
values |
Able to promote democracy |
Able to face up to Israel |
|
Professionals |
48% |
76% |
86% |
|
Housewives |
74% |
49% |
73% |
|
BA+ |
59% |
65% |
78% |
|
Illiterate |
70% |
48% |
61% |
|
NGOs |
50% |
72% |
79% |
|
Government |
66% |
60% |
78% |
|
16-18
Yrs. Old |
70% |
36% |
76% |
|
52+
Yrs. old |
71% |
56% |
70% |
5) Participation in elections: Majority willing to participate;
decline in willingness if opposition calls for a boycott
If presidential and legislative-council elections are held in January, 76% say that they would participate, with a relatively higher level of participation in Gaza (82%) compared to the West Bank (72%).
If
Palestinian opposition groups called for a boycott of the elections, only 27%
would participate in the boycott. 59% would not boycott the elections (62%in
Gaza and 57% in the West Bank).
6) Majority (55%) of the respondents will vote for Mr. Arafat, 31% will not vote for him, and 14% are undecided. Over 61% of those intending to vote will vote for Mr. Arafat.
The results of the poll revealed that a majority of respondents would vote for Mr. Arafat if elections were held today. Of all the respondents, over 61% will vote for him in Gaza and 50% in the West Bank.
Of those who intend to vote, over 60% will vote for Mr. Arafat, 26% will not vote for him, and 14% are undecided. The results will stay the same even if the opposition called for a boycott of elections.
7) Women candidates: Better odds for women in legislative than in presidential and local elections
Asked if a Palestinian woman
were to run in the presidential elections, 54% of the total sample said that
they would be willing to vote for her (52% in Gaza and 55% in the West Bank).
In contrast, 43% of the total sample would not vote for a woman presidential
candidate (45% in Gaza and 42% in the West Bank).
Comparatively, there is majority
support for women candidates for the Palestinian legislative council with 71%
of the total sample saying that they would vote for a woman candidate (68% in
Gaza and 72% in the West Bank). In contrast, 27% of the total sample say that
they would not vote for a woman candidate (30% in Gaza and 25% in the West
Bank).
There is also support for
woman candidates for the local council elections with 57% saying that they
would vote for a woman candidate (55% in Gaza and 59% in the West Bank).
However, 40% of the total sample say that they would not vote for a woman
candidate for the local council (43%in Gaza and 38% in the West Bank).
Willingness to vote for a
woman candidate increases with age; the young are the least willing to vote for
women (see table 4).
|
Table (4): % Willing to vote for women candidates by various social
categories |
||
|
|
Legislative
elections |
Local
elections |
|
Professionals |
83% |
73% |
|
Housewives |
71% |
58% |
|
BA+ |
82% |
68% |
|
Illiterate |
70% |
57% |
|
NGOs |
80% |
55% |
|
Government |
75% |
65% |
|
16-18
Yrs. Old |
55% |
49% |
|
52+
Yrs. Old |
79% |
65% |
8) Future State Regime: More than 60% of the educated choose a democratic – pluralistic system, with 43% of the illiterate population opting for an Islamic system with one party rule.
Palestinians were asked
about their preferred political regime after the establishment of a Palestinian
state. The sample is split equally between those who favor a democratic regime
and those who favor an Islamic regime. 42% of the total sample, equally
distributed between the regions, choose a democratic regime with participation
of the various political parties. At the same time, 42% choose an Islamic
regime ruled by one party, with greater support in the West Bank (43%) than in
Gaza (40%). A minority of respondents (14%) is in favor of a presidential
regime similar to various Arab regimes (16% in Gaza and 13% in the West Bank).
Table (5) shows the relationship between educational attainment and preference
for a political system.
Table (5): Preferred Political System (% support)
|
||||||
|
Educational
attainment |
Illiterate |
Less
than 6 yrs. |
Between
6-9 yrs. |
Between
10-12 yrs. |
2-year
diploma |
BA
+ |
|
Democratic
– Pluralistic |
39% |
36% |
38% |
48% |
66% |
61% |
|
Islamic
– One party |
43% |
44% |
46% |
38% |
27% |
31% |
In this regard, the following findings are revealing:
·
Over
60% of NGOs and governmental employees support a democratic – pluralistic
system, compared with 42% of private sector employees (a group that includes
merchants, laborers, farmers, and craftsmen).
·
56%
of professionals support a democratic – pluralist system, and 41% of them
support an Islamic system. In addition, 60% of white-collar employees support a
democratic system, while 41% of them support an Islamic one. In contrast, 33%
of farmers, and 34% of the housewives[2]
support a democratic system, while 54% and 44% respectively support an Islamic
system.
·
Support
for a democratic system increases with age. For example, 30% of the age group
18-22 support such a system, compared with 48% among the age group 38-42 and
46% among the age group 52+. In contrast, support for an Islamic regime is more
widespread among the youth. 55% of the age group 18-22 are supportive of an
Islamic system, while 30% of the age group 38-42 and 33% of the age group 28-32
share the same view.
9) Reform: Doubts about the Israeli – American role
65% believe that the current reforms undertaken by the Palestinian Authority are conducted according to American and Israeli dictates. Only 25% believe that these reforms are conducted mainly for the benefit of the Palestinian people. 91% of the sample believe that the United States is demanding reforms in the Palestinian institutions for its own political interests. Doubt is more widespread among the educated, the young, the professionals, and the employees of NGOs.
10) A Majority say they boycott Israeli & American
products
62% of the total sample say that they boycott Israeli products (66% in Gaza and 59% in the West Bank). Furthermore, 63% say that they boycott American products (68% in Gaza compared to 60% in the West Bank).
11) International funding seen as driven by political
agenda of donors
61% believe that Palestinian institutions should boycott U.S. government funding. There is greater support for boycotting such funds in the West Bank (64%) than in Gaza (57%). With reference to boycotting the American non-governmental funding institutions, only 39% of the sample were supportive (40% in the West Bank compared to 37% in Gaza). In contrast, 54% say that Palestinians should not boycott American non-governmental funding, with more support in Gaza (57%) than in the West Bank (52%).
74% believe that donor countries determine the funding priorities according to their own political interests and not according to the needs of the Palestinian people. The percentages with this view are higher in the West Bank (78%) than in Gaza (71%). Moreover, 62% believe that the donor countries use their funding in order to attain further concessions from the Palestinian people on national issues.
12) Education, poverty, and health are most important
priorities
Palestinians were asked to select the most important area in which to channel funding from the donor countries. Education tops the list (31%), followed by immediate financial support to families in need (26%), health care (13%), democracy and human rights (8%), water (6%), building the institutions of the Palestinian Authority (5%) and police (2%). At the end of the list (1%) were domains such as sewage, roads, agriculture, and the improvement of the status of women.
13) An optimistic constituency in spite of feelings of
insecurity
50% of the respondents are optimistic about the future, while 29% remain pessimistic. In addition, 75% have no sense of security for their families and property.
14) Decline in support for negotiations with Israel
The results show that 50% object to meetings on security coordination between Palestinians and the Israelis, while 43% support such meetings. Nevertheless, 55% support a resumption of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, while 42% are against (Support for political negotiations was 64% in May, and 70% in February 2002).
Development
Studies Program, Birzeit University
Copyright © 2002 DSP. All rights reserved.
Revised: 08/02/02
E-mail : dsp@birzeit.edu
Tel: 972 (2) 2959250 Fax: 972 (2) 2958117
P.O. Box 1878
Ramallah,
Palestine