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Poll No. 19
An Opinion Poll Concerning Living Conditions, Emigration, the Palestinian Government, Security Conditions and Reform
[ Analysis of Results ] [ Detailed Results ] [ Sample Distribution ] [ PDF Format ] [ In Arabic ]
Analysis of Results
Background
Living Conditions, Education, the Palestinian Government and Internal Security Conditions
- Living conditions continue to deteriorate, as the closure and Israeli military operations inside Palestinian territories continue, with 2.25 million Palestinians (60% of the population) living under the poverty line at present. Data also indicate that 38% of all Palestinian households are in need of food due to lack of sufficient resources.
- In the period extending between the months of June and September 2004, scores of Palestinians were killed, many of them as a result of collective assassination operations waged by Israel against the Palestinian people. During this period, hundreds of houses were demolished or bombarded, especially in the Gaza Strip, while hundreds of Palestinians were wounded and many others were taken to detention camps.
- On 9/7/2004, The International Court of Justice in the Hague published its advisory opinion regarding the separation wall, which pronounced it to be in violation of international law and demanded that the Israeli government cease its construction, destroy the parts built so far and compensate all those who suffered as a result of its construction, including the residents of East Jerusalem and its environs. On 21/7/2004, the UN General Assembly adopted a draft Resolution obligating the Israeli government to take down the separation wall since it constitutes an illegal act and violates international laws and treaties. These developments constituted a political and moral victory for the Palestinians.
- On 5/10/2003 Mr. Ahmad Qurei formed an emergency cabinet, after a period of confusion following the resignation of former Prime Minister Mr. Mahmoud Abbas from his post. The emergency cabinet ended its activities on 3/11/2003, and Mr. Qurei formed his second cabinet, obtaining the confidence of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) on 12/11/2003.
- Palestinian security forces were unable to play an effective role in providing for the security of the population as a result of the existing divisions between forces under the command of the Ministry of the Interior and those under the direct command of the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- As of the mid-July 2004, a series of events took place relating to demands for reform voiced by a number of parties within the PA, such as the kidnapping of the Police Chief in the Gaza Strip, the occupation of government buildings in the Gaza Strip and in Jenin, and two incidents in which foreigners were kidnapped in Khan Yunis and Nablus. These events reached their peak with the assassination attempt against Palestinian Legislative Council member Nabil Amr.
- Some changes were made in the command of Palestinian security forces, yet internal security remained under threat of further tensions. Opinions differ as to the impact of these changesAround one million students went back to school as they re-opened in early September.
- Palestinian universities also re-opened for the new scholastic year, receiving over 100,000 students. This came at a time of worsening economic conditions for the Palestinian population, prompting questions about how the costs of university education would be met.
1. Living Conditions: Economic conditions in the Palestinian Territories continue to deteriorate.
- The income of 42% of Palestinian households in the poll was less than $160 a month, and of these 8% had no source of income at all.
- In general, 78% of Palestinian households in the poll reported an income less than $385 a month. The results indicate that the economic situation is worse in Gaza, with the percentage reaching 89% for households in the Gaza Strip and 71% for those in the West Bank.
- 38% of the respondents described the economic conditions in their households as bad or very bad, 44% described them as average and 19% as good or very good.
2. Migration: Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza seek permanent or temporary opportunities abroad as a result of deteriorating conditions.
- 5% of polled households declared a member of their household had left the Palestinian Territories as permanent migrants during the period of the second Intifada.
- 11% declared that a member of their household had left the Palestinian Territories for work or study purposes during the years of the Intifada.
- A solid majority of those polled, 82%, declared that they would not leave the Palestinian Territories for permanent residence abroad, even if they were given the opportunity to do so. Yet 37% declared that they have the desire to leave temporarily for work and/or study outside the Palestinian Territories.
- The results indicate that those polled in the Gaza Strip demonstrated a higher readiness for permanent or temporary emigration than those polled in the West Bank.
- The desire for permanent emigration is highest among youth ages 18-27 (25%) and men are more willing to emigrate (24%), compared with women (12%).
3. Education: High satisfaction with performance of educational institutions, but concern about high costs
3-1: Assessment of Palestinian Education
- 52% of those polled expressed their satisfaction as to the educational process in Palestine, 29% said they are somewhat satisfied, while 18% expressed dissatisfaction.
- 58% of those polled believed that schools in Palestine perform the role required of them, and 59% of those polled said that Palestinian universities also perform the role required of them.
- 56% of those polled declared that they have some knowledge about school curricula, while only 49% of those who have some knowledge considered them to be good curricula.
- 70% of those polled believed that education in Palestine is developing in a good manner.
3-2: Material Resources and Education
- 55% of those polled declared that their households are unable financially to provide for the appropriate education needed for their children.
- 62% of those polled agreed to the following opinion: "The costs of school education are heavy for their households".
- 74% of those polled supported the same opinion regarding university education.
3-3: Attitudes Regarding the Educational Process
- 93% of the Palestinian households polled considered education to be a main priority for their households.
- 72% of them expressed their agreement to the directives issued by the Ministry of Education and Higher Education prohibiting corporal punishment in schools.
- 66% agreed to the following opinion: "Had I the material capability, I would have sent my children to private schools".
- 77% considered university education to be expensive.
- 78% of those polled disagreed with the opinion that schooling for boys is preferred over schooling for girls.
- 54% of those polled declared they do not desire to educate their children in universities outside Palestine.
4. Performance of the Palestinian Government: Negative Public Evaluation
The general attitude of those polled regarding Mr. Ahmad Qurei and his government was generally negative, with respondents citing major shortcomings on a number of issues. They also indicated that the government has limited powers, and expressed their aspiration to have changes among government members and senior officials at the helm of government authorities.
- 40% of those polled evaluated the performance of Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmad Qurei as poor, representing a tangible increase in dissatisfaction (of about 7%) compared to those who evaluated his performance three months earlier in the June 7th, 2004 poll. In this round, 24% of those polled evaluated his performance as average, and 20% evaluated it as good.
- 47% of those polled evaluated the performance of the current government as poor (compared to 36% three months earlier, which means an increase in negative evaluation of 11%), 24% evaluated it as average, and 16% evaluated it to be good.
- When specific issues were raised, the results reflected an additional drop in the evaluation of the Palestinian public as to government performance, with the majority of those polled evaluating such performance to be poor, as indicated by the results in Table 1.
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Table
1: Percentage of those who considered government performance in
the following areas, according to regions
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Palestinian
Territories
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West Bank
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Gaza Strip
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Mitigate the Israeli siege
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81%
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81%
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79%
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Achieve withdrawal of Israeli forces from cities
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79%
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78%
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80%
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Reduce unemployment
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75%
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80%
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67%
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Resist construction of the wall
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74%
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74%
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73%
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Provide internal security to citizens
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72%
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73%
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69%
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Solve the problem of anarchy of arms
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71%
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69%
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75%
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Progress in negotiations with the Israelis
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71%
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71%
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71%
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Combat corruption in PA institutions
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69%
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69%
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69%
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Improve economic conditions
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68%
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69%
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65%
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Address the issue of prisoners in Israeli jails
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67%
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68%
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66%
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Consolidate the rule of law
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64%
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67%
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58%
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Bring to justice those implicated in the cement
scandal
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62%
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60%
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66%
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Activate the role of the judiciary and courts
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58%
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60%
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55%
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Develop the performance and services of government
institutions
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54%
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54%
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54%
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- A government with no powers: About 55% of those polled believed that the current government does not have sufficient powers to solve the above problems, while 19% believed that it has sufficient powers to do so.
- The need to introduce changes in senior posts in the PNA: The majority of the Palestinian public (71%) believed there is a need to carry out changes in ministerial positions and among those at the helm of main government authorities.
- The PA is not serious in its anti-corruption measures: 68% of those polled believed that the PA is not doing all it could do to address the problem of corruption in its institutions.
5. Priorities
- The poll indicated that the main priority for the current government should be "improving the economic situation", as declared by 35% of those polled, followed by 18% "providing internal security", and 8% for "reducing unemployment". The results also pointed to other priorities, as can be seen in Table 2:
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Table
2: Percentage of those polled who considered the following to be their
top priority, according to region
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Area of priority
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Palestinian Territories
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West Bank
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Gaza Strip
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Improve economic conditions
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35%
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33%
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37%
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Provide internal security
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18%
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19%
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16%
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Reduce unemployment
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10%
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10%
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9%
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Fight corruption
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8%
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6%
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10%
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Provide support to Palestinian prisoners
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7%
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8%
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6%
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Achieve withdrawal of Israeli forces from cities
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7%
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6%
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8%
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Resist construction of the wall
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6%
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6%
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1%
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Mitigate the Israeli siege
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4%
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6%
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1%
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Consolidate the rule of law
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3%
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2%
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4%
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Solve the problem of anarchy of arms
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2%
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1%
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3%
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Achieve progress in negotiations with the Israelis
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1%
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1%
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2%
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Improve performance of government institutions
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1%
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0.3%
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2%
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Bring to justice those implicated in the cement
scandal
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1%
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1%
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1%
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Activate the role of the judiciary and courts
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0.4%
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0.4%
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0.3%
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6. Palestinian Internal Conditions: Lack of Security and Demands for Reform
6-1: Attitudes of the Palestinian public on recent calls for reform: High support among the Palestinian public for demands for reform, despite suspicions as to how sincere the advocates may be.
- Wide-scale popular support for demands for reform: 72% of those polled support the calls for reform, launched by persons from the ranks of the PA, while 21% of those polled rejected these calls. Support for these demands increased in the Gaza Strip to reach 80%, compared to 72% in the West Bank.
- Concern as to the sincerity of such positions coming from personalities and forces from the ranks of the PA. The views of the Palestinian public are divided as to how serious the advocates of reform from inside the ranks of the PA are, as 38% of those polled believed in the sincerity of these calls, while 40% did not believe in their sincerity, and 22% did not express an opinion.
- 57% of those polled stated that the real motive behind the calls for reform launched from among the ranks of the PA reflect their personal interests, while 27% of those polled believed that these demands were in the service of the public good.
- The PA is not serious in its measures to introduce reforms: 52% of those polled said the PA is not serious in its reforms, while 37% believed otherwise.
- Within the same context, 40% of those polled believed that President Arafat is serious in the commitment he made before the PLC in August 2004 to implement comprehensive reforms, while 27% believed he was somewhat sincere, and 28% believed he was not sincere.
6-2 The attitudes of the Palestinian public towards the methods used to express the demands for reform:
The majority of the Palestinian public opposed any resort to force to express demands or protests, and expressed the greatest opposition to any attempts to kidnap foreigners. On the other hand, peaceful demonstrations were the most acceptable method of protest. Those polled expressed their concerns over the dangers of resorting to force as an expression of differences within Palestinian society.
- The highest opposition was expressed to any form of injury to foreigners in Palestinian territories, with 85% opposing the kidnapping of foreigners working in Palestinian territories.
- 82% of those polled regarded the kidnapping of Palestinians close to PA circles to be an unacceptable method.
- 80% of those polled opposed any harm to public property or PA offices.
- 77% of those polled opposed armed demonstrations as a method of protest.
- The greatest support (90%) was for peaceful demonstrations as a method acceptable to express the demands for reforms.
- The majority of the Palestinian public believed that recent events pointed to internal strife: 68% of those polled said that recent inter-Palestinian events point to internal strife, while 27% believed these events can not be regarded as an indication of potential internal strife.
7. The Peace Process: Increased Support for Negotiations with Israel
Substantial increase in the rate of support for resumption of negotiations with Israel: The majority of those polled (63%) supported the resumption of negotiations, while 34% opposed it. It should be noted that there is a substantial increase in the percentage of those supporting the resumption of negotiations with Israel, compared to 45% of those polled in June 2004.
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