Results of An Opinion Poll

·        Poll shows equal levels of support for Marwan Barghouthi (46%) and Mahmoud Abbas (44%).

·        The only opposition candidate garnering support above five percent is Mustafa Barghouthi (7%).

·        Compared with previous polling data, results of the poll show a significant increase in the popularity of Mahmoud Abbas and a decline in the popularity of Marwan Barghouthi.

·        A significant number of Palestinians (24%) remain undecided.  More remain undecided  in the West Bank (27%) than in Gaza (19%).

·        A majority (87%) support the timely conduct of presidential election, and (83%) intend to vote.

·        West Bank refugee camps and youth tend to be more supportive of Marwan Barghouti.

·        Gaza residents, men and respondents with middle and higher income levels tend to be more supportive of Mahmoud Abbas.

·        Support for Mahmoud Abbas and Marwan Barghouthi disaggregated for socio-economic variables:

·        Support for Mustafa Barghouthi is higher among women and West Bank (refugee camp and village) residents.

·        41% believe Mahmoud Abbas is the most suitable candidate; 38% believe Marwan Barghouthi is the most suitable candidate; 5% believe Mustafa Barghouthi is the most suitable candidate.

·        64% expect that Mahmoud Abbas will win, while 22% expect that Marwan Barghouthi will win.

·        A boycott of election by Islamist groups has no significant impact on participation; only 17% will not participate.

·        There is no significant difference in attitude among respondents registered for the election and those unregistered.  Among both groups Fatah gains the highest votes and Marwan Barghouthi and Mahmoud Abbas receive almost equal votes.  Support for Hamas is also almost equal among the registered and the unregistered.

·        Using the “Public Record” to allow registered and unregistered Palestinians to vote would significantly increase participation in Gaza (75% - 88%), potentially leading to more votes for Mahmoud Abbas

·        Mahmoud Abbas has a 48% level of support among Fatah voters and 18% level of support among Hamas voters; Marwan Barghouthi has a 31% level of support among Fatah voters and 51% level of support among Hamas voters.  Independents voted equally for both candidates.

Support for candidates disaggregation by political affiliation:

·        The poll shows that Fatah has gained significant support – from 29% in September 2004 to 45% currently.

·        Support for Hamas is about 20%, 4% less than its support during September 2004.

·         If municipal and legislative elections took place, Fatah would get 47% of the vote compared with 30% for the Islamist bloc.  The Leftist bloc would garner 3% of the vote.