Development Studies Programme (DSP) - Opinion Polls: Poll No. 21

Plans are being made to hold an election for the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in July 17, 2005. The following results show great support for these elections and a desire to participate.

1. The majority of respondents support holding PLC election on its scheduled date and declare intent to participate.

· 84% support holding PLC election on its due date (July 17, 2005), while 8% oppose.

· Over 73% say that they intend to participate in the upcoming election; 78% in Gaza compared with 70% in the West Bank.

· In contrast, 20% (15% in Gaza and 23% in the West bank) say that they will not participate.

· 68% of the respondents support the proposal that states that the election system should be based on national lists and proportional representation. 25% oppose the proposal and 7% are undecided.

· A little less than 80% support the allocation of a specific quota to designate a percentage of seats for women in the PLC. Support in the West Bank (82%) is higher than Gaza (74%). Women are more supportive of the quota (84%) than men (73%).

· Over 58% supported a quota to guarantee 30% or more seats in the PLC for women. In fact, the largest group of respondents (30%) supported the allocation of half of the seats for women. Another 10% supported a quota of 40%, 18% supported a quota of 30%, 19% supported 20%, and 23% supported 10% quota.

· It was noticeable that the percentage support for a women's quota had increased from 62% before the PLC approved a similar quota designating seats for women in the recent Local Council Elections, to 79% now. This might be due to an increase in the perceived success by citizens of the implementation of the quota during the last local council elections.

· About 48% of the respondents declared that they will vote for new fresh faces in the upcoming PLC election; only 10% said that they will vote for the present members. In contrast, 42% felt that this issue is not relevant in their decision.

5. Reputation and service to the community are most important in selecting a candidate

The respondents were asked to evaluate 10 factors that might influence their selection of a candidate. These are the most important results:

· 96% indicated that the most important factor is a good reputation and no record of corruption. That was followed by service to the community and education with 92% believing that they are important.

· The role in the struggle and religiosity were ranked fifth and sixth in relative importance, receiving about 78%.

· Political affiliation of the candidate is not as important as the previous factors, receiving 54%

· The place of residence of the candidate and familial connection to the candidate were the least important factors

Table (1): Criteria for selection of candidates
	Important %	To some extent important %	Not Important %
Good reputation / no corruption	96	2	2
Provided services	92	5	3
Educational attainment	92	5	3
Role in the struggle	78	11	11
Religiosity	78	9	13
Access to decision-making within the PNA	62	13	25
Political affiliation	54	16	30
Gender	44	15	41
The candidate must be from area of residence	31	12	57
The candidate must be a relative	15	8	77

If all political groups decided to run on their own, based on a proportional election system for the whole country, the following results come out:

· 24% are undecided (although they intend to participate); 5% will participate but will not vote for any of the lists provided in the poll.

· The PFLP will receive a little over 2%. Palestinian National Initiative (Al Mubadara), PPP, and DFLP will each receive 1.5%.

· The Fida, Nidal, Saeqa (Baath Group), Palestine Liberation Front, Arab Liberation Front, Popular Front – Public Leadership groups will each receive less than 0.3% of the vote (i.e., less than half percent). All of them together receive less than 1%.

In case of coalitions made up from various groups, the results for Fateh and Hamas do not change. The change is significant for a Palestinian National Initiative (Al Mubadara) -PFLP bloc.

· A Fateh bloc that also includes Nidal, Fida, PPP, and others (led by Marwan Bargouti and supported by Mahmoud Abbas) will still receive 41%.

· A Hamas bloc with other Islamists (led by Mahmoud Zahar and supported by Khaled Mishal) will receive 23% of the vote.

· Al Mubadara-PFLP bloc (led by Mustafa Bargouti and supported by Haidar Abdel Shafi and Ahmad Saadat) will receive about 7%. If they run separately, they will receive a combined total of 3.5%.

· These results can not be used to fully predict the outcome of the election in July, since nearly 30% are either undecided or they will not vote for any of these blocs. This (swing vote) might lead to significant changes in the current predictions.

Palestinians were polled on their views of the ability of each bloc to make positive change on the various areas of their life:

· The results show that a majority of Palestinians trusts Fateh to achieve better success in 4 areas of concern: progress in the peace negotiations (70%), national unity (57%), improvement in economic conditions (57%), and reform internal conditions (53%).

· Hamas got the highest vote of trust in the area of representation of the poor and marginalized with 58%, whereas Fateh received 35%.

· Hamas receives higher scores in Gaza than in the West Bank on all issues; while Fateh receives higher scores in the West Bank than Gaza.

Table (3): Perceived ability of the various groups to make change (%)
		Progress in the peace process	Represent the poor	Reform internal conditions	Achieve national unity	Improve living conditions
Fateh bloc	Total	70	35	53	57	57
	Wes Bank	72	39	58	60	59
	Gaza Strip	66	28	46	52	53
Hamas bloc	Total	25	58	41	36	38
	Wes Bank	22	54	35	32	35
	Gaza Strip	29	65	51	43	44
Al Mubadara-PFLP bloc	Total	5	7	6	7	5
	Wes Bank	6	7	7	8	6
	Gaza Strip	5	6	4	5	3

1. A majority believe that the January Presidential election was fair; variance in the opinions of those who participated and those who did not participate.

· Among those who voted and those who did not, the current poll reveals that 54% of the Palestinian public believes that the Presidential Election was fair; while 30% felt it was somewhat fair. Only 16% felt that was unfair.

· For those that actually voted in the Presidential election, as measured by a DSP election-day poll, 73% of the voters felt that the election was fair, while 22% felt it was fair to some extent and only 5% of the voters felt it was unfair.

· The current poll shows that respondents who did not participate in the election exhibit varying point of views compared to those who did participated. 63% of those who said that they participated now feel that the election was fair, compared with 37% of those who declared that they did not participate.

2. Reasons for non-participation are mostly non-political. Personal and logistical issues are important.

· 22% said that the reason for their non-participation is that they were busy on the day of the election.

· Another 17% said that they did not find an appropriate candidate for whom to vote.

· About 10% said that the presidential election will make no difference in their lives or the life of the community.

· 5% cited logistical problems such as not finding their names in the records or not being able to find their election center.

· 3% (mostly Jerusalem residents) cited fear of loss of rights such as social security that is provided by the Israeli government.

· West Bank respondents cited being busy, religion, road blocs, and fear of loss of rights as a primary reason more than Gazans. In contrast more Gaza respondents cited not being able to find proper candidates and the perception that election makes no difference.