Legislative Council Elections

Dates of fieldwork: 5-7/1/2006

Number of field researchers: 75

Sample size: 1500 Palestinians in (West Bank and Gaza Strip)

Margin of error: + 3% 

*         For further information or queries, contact team coordinator Dr. Nader Said (059-9204517) or Polling coordinator Ayman Abdul Majeed at the listed address or through our website (http://home.birzeit.edu/dsp)

*         Supported by the International Republican Institute (IRI) for their support.

First: Headlines

·        90% support holding legislative elections on time;

·        Fateh and Hamas are in a tight race for PLC seats;

·         97% are against kidnapping of internationals.

Second: Main Results:

• Two weeks before the elections: Fateh 35%, Hamas 30%, undecided 21%, and the list of Independent Palestine 6%.

• About 30% of the floating vote (undecided) favors Hamas; 24% bents towards Fateh, and 10% with inclinations towards the independent lists.

• Among the registered for the elections, 83% expressed their will to vote.

• Among the respondents, 65% believe that the elections will be fair.

• Among the respondents, 45% considered TV as the best means to acquire information on elections, whereas 26% considered public meetings and workshops and 13% of the respondents considered radio as the best means on acquiring information on elections.

• The poll reveals that 35% of potential voters have access to computers and 24% use the Internet.

• Among the respondents, 90% support holding legislative elections on time (January 25, 2006).

• Over 97% of Palestinians oppose kidnapping of internationals in Palestinian Territories.

• A high percentage of respondents (96%) opposes the protest means of erecting roadblocks by militants within cities

• Likewise, 92% of the respondents oppose armed parades organized by militant groups

• In general, 97% oppose the use of any form of violence to resolve disputes.

• In contrast, 95% support the use of peaceful, organized demonstrations and/or marches

• Finally, 98% feel that the current lawlessness harms the Palestinians and their cause.

Third: Analysis of Results

1.      Legislative Elections:

• Among the respondents there is a high percentage of 90% in the West Bank and Gaza who supports the holding of the elections of the Palestinian Legislative Council- PLC on time (January 25 2006). The rates of support for holding the elections are equal in the West Bank and Gaza. Only 7% are against holding these elections on their predetermined time.

• Among the respondents there is 65% who believes that the PLC elections will be fair, in contrast to 27% who believe the opposite. The rates are equal in the West Bank and Gaza.

• Among those who registered to vote, 83% expressed their will to vote, compared to 12% who expressed their decline, whereas 5% of the registered are still undecided. The percentage of those who will vote is higher in Gaza (89%) than that in the West Bank (80%).

2.      Voting Patterns (for the proportional-national lists which comprise 50% of the seats):

• Fateh leads with about 35%, followed immediately by Hamas at 30%. Support for Fateh had drastically declined by 10 points since October 2005, while the support for Hamas had increased by 7 points since then.

• Both Fateh and Hamas receive 38% of the vote in Gaza. Nevertheless, both receive lower support in the West Bank. Fateh, however, is more popular in the West Bank (32%) than Hamas (27%). Not least significant, is the floating vote in the West Bank which reaches (26%) and is as twice as that in Gaza (13%). This implies that the race for winning the hearts and minds of the undecided voters will remain furious until the last minute i.e., the elections day.

• Fateh and Hamas will be succeeded by the list of Independent Palestine (led by Mustafa Bargouthi), which will win about 6% of the vote. The three lists (Fateh, Hamas and the Independent Palestine) will be followed by three lists which each will win between 2-3% of the vote. These three lists include: The Third Way – led by Salam Fayyad and Hanan Ashrawi; PFLP supported list; and Badil (a coalition of leftist groups). The power of the last three lists will increase to (2-4%) each, if we take into account the undecided voters. None of the remaining six lists shows any statistical signs or indications that it might gain the 2% of the vote (the threshold that enables any list to take part in the distribution of the PLC seats).

• 	Total %	West Bank %	Gaza Strip %
  1) Independent Palestine (Mustafa Barghouthi and Independents)	5.7	6.4	5.1
  2) Badil (DFLP, PPP and Fida coalition)	2.0 – 3.0	3.0 – 4.0	1.0 – 1.5
  3) Third Way (Independents)	2.0 – 3.0	2.0 – 3.0	2.0 – 3.0
  4) Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP)	2.0 – 3.0	2.0 – 3.0	2.0 – 3.0

• Taking into consideration the undecided, floating vote (21%), it is most likely that 30% of the undecided will vote for Hamas. If this voting trend will be materialized on the elections day then Hamas power will be increased by 7% only to bring it to a total of 37% of the votes. In contrast to that, Fateh might gain 5% of the floating vote which will increase its power to 40% of the total vote. The voting pattern and political behavior of the undecided voters on elections day will be a crucial factor in redrawing the Palestinian political map on January 26, 2006.

• Which one of these lists will you vote for? (considering how the undecided might vote)
  1) Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fateh)	40 %
  2) Change and Reform (Hamas)	37 %
  3) Independent Palestine (Mustafa Barghouthi and Independents)	7 %
  4) Undecided	7 %
  5) Badil (DFLP, PPP and Fida coalition)	2 – 4%
  6) Third Way (Independents)	2 – 4%
  7) Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP)	2 – 4%

• It must also be noted that this poll does not provide indicators on how Palestinians will vote in the districts (the regional elections system which allocates 50% of the PLC seats for districts’ candidates).

3.      Sources of Information on Elections:

• As it was expressed by 45% of the respondents TV, remains the best means to disseminate information on the elections

• Among the respondents 26% considered workshops and public meetings as the best means to disseminate information on the elections

• The third most important source of information on elections is Palestinian radios (13%), more in Gaza (18%) than in the West Bank (10%).

• About 6% feel that newspapers are the best source, more in the West Bank (8%) than Gaza (3%).

• Leaflets and other publications received also 6%, with more in the West Bank (7%) than Gaza (5%).

• Closely related is the use of computers and Internet; when Palestinian adults were asked about their use of computers (at home or work), 35% said that they use them (always or sometimes), while 65% said that they do not. The percentages are equal in the West Bank and Gaza.

• As to the use of Internet, 24% said that they use it, while 76% said that they do not.

4.      Attitudes towards Lawlessness and Use of Arms:

·        When asked about the means to achieve reform and resolve disputes, a vast majority of Palestinians (97%) expressed their rejection to kidnapping of Internationals residing in Palestinian Territories.

·        Another 97% said that they are opposed to the use of arms in resolving disputes or in protest of controversial policies.

·        In addition, a vast majority (95%) opposes armed parades by militant groups.

·        About 96% opposes the erection of roadblocks by militants in cities.

·        In contrast, 97% support peaceful marches as a way of protest.