Dates of fieldwork: 19/4/2006

Sample Size: 630 Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza

Number of Sampling Localities: 43

Margin of error: + 4% 

1. Highlights

·        63% support a National Unity Government, while 24% support the continuation of a Hamas-led government.

·        There is a decline in the percentage of voters willing to vote for Hamas from 50% to 44%.  The Fateh vote continues at 34%.

·        53% say that they are satisfied with the outcome of the latest PLC elections, compared with 59% (20 days ago).

·        41% believe that the Hamas win will positively impact internal conditions, compared with 59% (20 days ago).

·        There is a drop in the evaluation of President Abbas from 54% to 43%; and for Prime Minister Haniyyeh from 64% to 57%.

·        32% evaluate the performance of the Hamas-led Government as “good.”

·         30% believe that the current government is handling the issue of international funding in an appropriate manner.

·        29% think that Hamas should recognize Israel and continue to receive funding from international sources as done previously, while 64% disagree.

2. Main Results

1.      Form of Government: 63% Support a National Unity Government

• In dealing with the crisis faced by Palestinians, 63% of respondents support the formation of a national unity government, while 24% support the continuation of a government led by Hamas. Only 9% support a technocratic government of independents.
• Support for a national unity government is much higher among Fateh supporters (81%) than Hamas supporters (46%), while support is at 57% among all others.
• Less than one quarter of Hamas supporters believe that a Hamas-led government is the best option. This is compared with 6% among Fateh supporters and 31% among others.
• Evaluation of Government: Respondents were divided when evaluating the performance of the newly-established Hamas government, where 32% evaluated its performance as “good”, and 36% evaluated it as “fair”, while 27% evaluated it as “weak.”

2.      PLC Elections: Decline in the percentage of voters willing to vote for Hamas from 50% to 44%

• Palestinians were asked who they would vote for if election for PLC took place on the day of the poll; 44% said that they would vote for Hamas (a decline of 6 points from 50% about 20 days ago on March 29). Voting for Fateh continued to be at about 34%. All others might receive less than 10%. About 14% are undecided.
• Voting for Hamas is higher in Gaza (47%) than the West Bank (41%). It is also higher in refugee camps (57%) compared with 42% in cities and 39% in villages. Women are still more willing to vote for Hamas (47%) than men (40%). Support for Hamas declines with education as 53% of the illiterate and 38% of university graduates are willing to vote for the movement.
• About 53% of those declared “religious” are willing to vote for Hamas, compared with 36% among those who describe themselves as “somewhat religious” and 7% among the “not religious.”
• Political support for Hamas is at 38%, while support for Fateh is at 30%.

3.      Expectations: Decline in Optimism by the Hamas win

• Fewer Palestinians (53%) say that they are satisfied with the outcome of the latest PLC elections compared with the last poll (59%) conducted 20 days ago on March 29.
• Fewer Palestinians believe that the election of Hamas will lead to enhancing Palestinian opportunities in achieving internal reform, a drop of 15 points from 56% to about 41%.
• The same applies to the issue of how the Hamas election will influence political aspirations of Palestinians; 42% feel that this will enhance Palestinians chances, down from 48% in the March 29 poll.
• Expectations that the election of Hamas will be positive for Palestinian political aspirations is correlated with education, as 61% of the illiterate feel that it is positive, compared with 30% among university graduates. The same applies to internal conditions, where 52% of illiterates and 36% of university graduates feel that the Hamas election will lead to improvement of internal conditions.

4.      Evaluation of Leaders: A Drop in the Evaluation of President Abbas and Prime Minister Haniyyeh

• About 43% evaluated the performance of President Mahmoud Abbas as “good.” This is compared with 54% about 20 days ago (11 point drop). In addition, 27% evaluated his performance as “fair”, while 29% evaluated his performance as “weak.
• As to Prime Minister Ismael Haniyyeh, his positive evaluation dropped from 64% as “good” to 57% (7 point drop). The drop was higher in Gaza (i.e., 14 points from 75% to 61%) than in the West Bank where it stayed almost the same at 55%. In addition, 23 % evaluated his performance as “fair”, and 14% as “weak.”

5.      International Funding: 30% believe that the current government is handling the issue of international funding in an appropriate manner

• Respondents were split in their views towards the handling by the current government of the issue of international funding. About 30% evaluated the handing of international funding as appropriate, and 32% evaluated it as “somewhat appropriate”, while 29% evaluated it as “not appropriate”.
• Views on how the government should proceed are more pronounced, as 29% think that Hamas should recognize Israel and continue to receive funding from international sources as done previously. In contrast, 63% think that the time is not appropriate for Hamas to recognize Israel and that it could go to other sources in the Arab and Islamic world (such as Iran).

6.      Trust in Institutions: About 38% trust government institutions the most

• When questioned on what institutions respondents trust the most, about 38% said that they trust government institutions the most, while 12% said that they trust NGOs, 11% trust political groups, and 5% trust private sector institutions.