Living Conditions

Evaluation of President and Prime Minister

The Current Events

Elections

26 December 2006

[ Highlights][ Analysis of Results ][ Detailed Results ][ PDF Format ]

[ Sample Distribution ][ In Arabic ]

Analysis of Results:

First: Living Conditions

• 51% of respondents described the economic situation of their households as (bad) or (very bad), while 17% described the economic situation of their households as (good) or (very good). 33% described it as fair.
• 58% of the respondents in Gaza described the economic situation of their households as (bad) or (very bad).
• 42% of respondents stated that they are optimistic about the future, while 23% of respondents stated that their feeling is between optimism and pessimism. 35% of respondents stated that they are pessimistic about the future.
• At the same time, 77% of respondents think that the Palestinian society is not going in the right direction. This is compared with 62% last September.

Second: Assessment of Palestinian leadership

• 31% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as good, while 30% as fair and 39% as weak.
• 41% of respondents assessed the performance of Prime Minister Ismael Haniyyeh as good, while 29% as fair and 30% as weak.

Third: Attitudes towards the current crisis: A majority places blame on both Fateh and Hamas for the current crisis; A National Unity Government is perceived as the way out.

• When asking the respondents about the suggestions to go beyond the current crisis, 48% of respondents see the solution in forming a National Unity Government on the basis of the National Reconciliation Document. In comparison, 25% see the solution in conducting a new Presidential and parliamentary election. 15% support maintaining the current government, while 10% of respondents support a one year transitional government of technocrats.
• 54% of respondents blame both Fateh and Hamas for the failure of reaching a National Unity Government. In addition, 22% blame Fateh and 17% blame Hamas.
• 50% of respondents blame both Fateh and Hamas the killings, clashes and assassinations. 16% blame Hamas and 15% Fateh. In Gaza, 22% blame Hamas while 13% blame Fateh. 

Fourth: Palestinian elections: A continuous decline in the popularity of Hamas; Fateh’s popularity is consistent. Respondents are divided in regard to the Palestinian President call for early Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

• Respondents were divided in regard to the call of the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to conduct early elections; 47% of respondents support the call, while 46% oppose it.
• However, 64% of respondents state that they will participate in the Presidential elections in case it was conducted.

Presidential Elections: Different Scenarios

1.     First Scenario: Competition between 12 Palestinian personalities

When asking the respondents who expressed their willingness to participate in presidential elections, the results were as follows:

·        In total, 4 Fateh personalities received 43% of the vote, while 4 Hamas personalities received 28%. 9% voted for independent and leftists personalities.

·        The results for the different personalities were as follows: Ismael Haniyyeh (Hamas) received 24%, Mahmoud Abbas and Marwan Barghouthi (Fateh) received 18% each, Mohammad Dahlan (Fateh) received 7%, Mustafa Barghouthi (Mubadara) received 5%, Khalid Mashal (Hamas) received 3%, Saeb Arekat (Fateh) and Ahmad Sadaat (PFLP) received 2% each. The rest of the candidates don't get significant percentages.

·        17% of respondents stated that they are (undecided)

2.     In case of a two-way Presidential race, the results were as follows:

Second Scenario: Abbas wins over Mashal (18 points difference)

Third Scenario: Abbas wins over Haniyyeh (8 points difference)

Fourth Scenario: Marwan Barghouthi wins over Ismael Haniyyeh (15 points difference)

Parliamentary Elections: Fateh (43%), Hamas (31%), Others (15%) 

• 66% of respondents stated that they will participate in Parliamentary elections in case they took place now.

Scenario 1: All respondents

• In case new parliamentary elections took place (today, with the same electoral lists of the last parliamentary elections, and in consideration of all respondents regardless of willingness to participate), the results were as follows: Fateh receives 34% of votes, same as its results of last September. Hamas receives 24%. The results of the different opinion polls indicate significant decline in the percentage of Hamas voters; the percentage was 50% last April, 37% in June, and 31% in September. The decline in the popularity of Hamas didn’t imply any increase in the popularity of other parties. Besides, the election results will greatly depend on how the (undecided) will vote and the nature of voters who vote on elections day. Moreover, this analysis applies only to the (proportional national lists) and not on the level of districts.
• In the same context, the other parties get approximately 8%.
• The percentage of respondents who said that they will not participate in elections reaches 21%, and the (undecided) comprise about 12%.

Scenario 2: Only those who will participate in the election

• If we however calculate the vote on the basis of those who declared that thy will vote, Fateh receives 43% of votes and thus maintaining the percentage it obtained in last elections, while Hamas receives 31% (13 points less than last January). The other electoral lists receive 11%.
• The (undecided) comprise 16%.

Scenario 3: A Three – way race

• In case three electoral lists compete for the parliamentary elections, the results didn't differ that much but for a unified list from the leftists and the independents; Fateh still receives 43%, Hamas receives 29%, while a unified list of leftists and independents receives 15%.
• The percentage of those who didn't decide to whom to vote reaches 12%.