Mecca Agreement

National Unity Government

Political Support

Future Expectations and Priorities

27 February 2007

[ Highlights][ Analysis of Results ][ Detailed Results ][ PDF Format ]

[ Sample Distribution ][ In Arabic ]

Section 2: Analysis of Results

1. Living conditions: Cautious Optimism

• Forty-four percent of the respondents describe the living conditions of their families as bad or very bad. This is compared with 51 percent during December 2006. In contrast, 20 percent describe their living conditions as good or very good, and 36 percent describe them as average.

• Of the respondents, 47 percent say that they are optimistic about the future, 25 percent are neither optimistic nor pessimistic, while 27 percent are pessimistic. This compares with 35 percent of the population rating their mood as pessimistic last December.

• Of the respondents, 59 percent say that they don’t feel secure about their own safety or the safety of their family and property. In addition, 22 percent feel somewhat secure, while 19 percent feel secure.

• Of the respondents, 59 percent feel that Palestinian society is heading in the wrong direction; this is compared with 77 percent in December 2006. In contrast, 40 percent believe that society is heading in the right direction, representing an increase of 23 points in the last two months.

2. Evaluation of leaders: Increase in the positive evaluation

Both President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ismael Hanniya score higher approval and performance ratings among the population since DSP’s last poll in December 2006.

• There is a 9 point increase in the positive evaluation of President Mahmoud Abbas – 40 percent evaluate his performance as good, compared with 31 percent last December. Thirty percent evaluate his performance as average; while another 30 percent evaluate it as weak.

• Prime Minister Ismael Hanniya’s positive evaluation increased five percent, rising from 41 to 46 percent positive marks (good) since last December. In addition, 29 percent of the respondents evaluate his performance as average, and 25 percent evaluate it as weak.

• Of the respondents, 50 percent believe that the actions and positions of Mr. Abbas are based on the best interests of the Palestinian people. In contrast, 43 percent believe that his actions and positions represent the best interests of his political party, Fateh.

• Fifty percent of the respondents believe that the actions and positions of Mr. Hanneyya are based on the best interests of the Palestinian people, while 44 percent believe that his actions and positions represent the best interests of his political party, Hamas.

3. The Mecca Agreement and Unity Government

• Of the respondents, 44 percent believe that the Mecca Agreement will stop factional infighting, while 45 percent believe that it will lead only to a temporary halt in the fighting.

• Fifty-nine percent have heard about the Agreement, but have no information on its details. An additional nine percent of the respondents have never heard about the Agreement. In contrast, 25 percent of the respondents say that they are familiar with the basic points of the Agreement, while 7 percent say that they know the details.

• Of the respondents, 73 percent feel that there is a real potential to form a unity government, while 23 percent feel that is impossible.

• Fifty-six percent of the respondents are optimistic about the success of the anticipated unity government, 25 percent are somewhat optimistic, and 18 percent are pessimistic.

Expectations are higher on internal issues concerning the potential impact of the unity government in solving the problems that are faced by Palestinian society:

• Of the respondents, 50 percent feel that the unity government will be able to bring about reform and uproot corruption, while 46 percent feel that it will improve living conditions, represent all groups, and reinforce democracy and freedoms.

• Forty-three percent of the respondents believe that the unity government will bring about order and rule of law.

• Lower percentages of the respondents are optimistic that the unity government will bring about positive changes concerning the Israeli Occupation. Thirty-five percent say that the anticipated government will be able to organize effective resistance against the Wall and the settlements; only 34 percent believe that the unity government will end the closure.

• When asked if the following international actors will place obstacles in the way of the unity government, 88 percent believe that the United States will do so, 87 percent believe Israel will obstruct its functioning, and 52 percent believe the EU will do so. Fifty-five percent, however, believe internal obstacles will block the unity government.

• Of the respondents, 65 percent state that they will participate in any upcoming elections.

• Of those who state that they will participate, and after taking into account undecided voters and their potential leanings, if an election were held, Fateh would garner 45 percent of the overall vote, Hamas 33 percent, while independents and leftist parties would capture 13 percent of the total votes cast.

• Twenty-one percent of the respondents say that they are members of a civil society institution – union, syndicate, or society.

• Of the respondents, 22 percent say that they are members of a political party or faction.

• Respondents (as opposed to voters) declared their support for all political groups  as follows:  Fateh 31 percent; Hamas 22 percent; PFLP 3 percent, Islamic Jihad 2 percent. All other parties receive 1 percent or less. Nine percent of the respondents say that they lean towards one of the listed  parties or another, while 29 percent say that they don’t support any of these parties. These results confirm yet again that political support or affiliation does not necessarily translate into likely voter support on the day of the elections.

5. Best Means to End the Occupation

When asked about their views on the best means to end the occupation, respondents answered in the following direction:

• 21 percent believe that negotiations are the best means to end the occupation.

• 22 percent believe that combining peaceful resistance with negotiations is the best means.

• 39 percent believe that a combination of armed resistance with negotiations is the best means to end occupation.

• About 15 percent believe that armed resistance is the best alternative.

6. Priorities for the coming 3 Years

• When asked to rate individual concerns, respondents rated nearly all issues as important priorities; the following issues were viewed of utmost priority by over 90 percent of the respondents:

-         Ending the security chaos

-         Improving economic conditions

-         Uprooting corruption

-         Consolidating national unity

-         Enforcing international relations and securing funds

-         Ending the occupation and achieving independence

• The following issues were perceived by the respondents as priorities, rated important by 80 - 90 percent of the respondents:

-         Preserving values and tradition

-         Achieving democracy and protecting freedoms

-         Proceeding with negotiations to achieve lasting peace

-         Improving the status of women

7. The Role of Civil Society

• Of the respondents, 82 percent believe that civil society and private sector could play a vital role in overcoming the ongoing tension.

• Seventy-one percent of the respondents feel that Hamas and Fateh are pushing all other political and civil society forces outside of the political arena.

• Of the respondents, 67percent agree that social services need to be transferred to civil society organizations to avoid influences of political positions.

• Fifty-three percent of the respondents believe that it is necessary to form an alternative democratic option to Fateh and Hamas.

• Half of the respondents (50 percent) opined that NGOs didn’t play a significant role throughout the ongoing crisis.